Abstract:Objective: To explore the risk factors that affect the frequent occurrence of convulsions (>3 times) in benign infantile convulsions associated with mild gastroenteritis (BICE), establish a nomogram prediction model, and test its predictive ability. Methods: A retrospective analysis of the clinical data of 91 cases of BICE admitted to the Department of Pediatrics of Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University from October 2013 to December 2017 was conducted. According to the number of convulsions, they were divided into frequent convulsions group (>3 times) and control group (≤3 times). Through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine the independent risk factors affecting the frequency of convulsions, and construct a nomogram. The receiver operating curve (ROC curve) and area under the curve (AUC), consistency index (C-index), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to test the predictive ability of the nomogram. Results: A total of 91 cases with BICE who met the criteria were enrolled, including 29 in the frequent convulsions group and 62 in the control group. The content of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in the frequent convulsions group was significantly lower than that in the control group. The positive rate of rotavirus, IL-6, IL-10 and TNF-α levels were significantly higher than those in the control group, and the differences were statistically significant (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that rotavirus, CD4+T cell content, IL-10 and TNF-α levels were independent risk factors affecting the frequency of convulsions in cases with BICE (P<0.05). Incorporate these four independent risk factors and successfully construct a nomogram. AUC (0.848), C-index (0.875, 0.854), calibration curve and DCA analysis showed that the prediction of convulsions frequency obtained by the nomogram is in good agreement with the actual observation, indicating that the nomogram has good predictive performance. Conclusion: Frequent convulsions in cases with BICE are the result of multiple factors, and various risk factors are different among children with different seizure times. Clinically, the nomogram constructed based on the above risk factors can be used to evaluate the condition of the children with BICE, adjust the treatment plan, and improve the management of convulsions.