文章摘要
赵 兴,王思远,张思慜,彭献镇.PM2.5、PM10短期暴露与流感样病例日门诊量的关联研究[J].南京医科大学学报,2020,(11):1718~1724
PM2.5、PM10短期暴露与流感样病例日门诊量的关联研究
Correlation between short⁃term exposure of PM2.5,PM10 and daily outpatient number of influenza⁃like illness
投稿时间:2019-08-02  
DOI:10.7655/NYDXBNS20201127
中文关键词: PM2.5  PM10  流感样病例  广义相加模型  剂量效应关系
英文关键词: PM2.5  PM10  influenza⁃like illness  generalized additive model  exposure⁃response relation
基金项目:江苏省高等学校自然科学基金(17KJD3300 02);南京医科大学科技发展基金(2017NJMUZD141)
作者单位
赵 兴 南京医科大学康达学院江苏 连云港 222000连云港市疾病预防控制中心江苏 连云港 222000 
王思远 南京医科大学康达学院江苏 连云港 222000 
张思慜 南京医科大学公共卫生学院江苏 南京 211166 
彭献镇 南京医科大学康达学院江苏 连云港 222000 
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中文摘要:
      目的:分析连云港市PM2.5、PM10质量浓度对流感样病例日门诊量的短期影响。方法:收集2014—2016年连云港市大气污染物日均数浓度、同期气象参数资料以及8家监测医院的流感样病例日门诊量,采用广义相加模型分析PM2.5、PM10对流感样病例日门诊量的影响以及剂量效应关系。结果:单污染物模型显示,在最佳滞后条件下,PM2.5或PM10每升高1个四分位间距值,流感样病例日门诊量分别增加2.3%(RR=1.023,95%CI:1.017~1.035)和3.8%(RR=1.038,95%CI:1.025~1.051)。双污染物及多污染物模型显示,校正混杂因素后,PM2.5、PM10与流感样病例日门诊量仍呈正关联。剂量效应关系显示,在低浓度时,随着PM2.5、PM10的增加,流感样病例发生风险逐步升高。但当PM2.5、PM10分别升高到50、100 μg/m3之后,流感样病例发生风险趋于稳定。结论:PM2.5、PM10质量浓度的增加可使流感样病例日门诊量升高,并且存在剂量效应。
英文摘要:
      Objective:This study aims to analyze the short?term effect of PM2.5 and PM10 concentration on daily outpatient visits of influenza?like illness(ILI)in Lianyungang. Methods:The daily mean concentration of air pollutants,meteorological parameters and daily outpatient visits of ILI in 8 monitoring hospitals in Lianyungang from 2014 to 2016 were collected. The effects of PM2.5 and PM10 on daily outpatient visits of ILI and exposure?response relations were analyzed by generalized additive model. Results:The single pollutant model showed that the daily outpatient visits of ILI increased by 2.3%(RR=1.023,95% CI=1.017?1.035)and 3.8%(RR=1.038,95% CI=1.025?1.051)respectively for each quartile interval of PM2.5 and PM10 under the optimal lag condition. Dual?pollutant and multi?pollutant models showed that PM2.5 and PM10 were positively correlated with daily outpatient visits of ILI after correction of confounding factors. Exposure?response relations showed that the risk of ILI increased gradually with the increase of PM2.5 and PM10 at low concentrations. However,when PM2.5 and PM10 increased to about 50 μg/m3 and 100 μg/m3 respectively,the risk of ILI tended to stabilize. Conclusion:The increase of PM2.5 and PM10 concentration can increase the daily outpatient visits of ILI,and there is exposure?response relation.
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