Trend analysis of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2020
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R181.8

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    Abstract:

    Objective:This study aims to analyze the trends of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2020,and to explore the effects of age,period and cohort on them,so as to provide a scientific basis for better control of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in the later period. Methods:Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in Jiangsu province from 2005 to 2020,annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC)were calculated. The data for people aged 0~89 years old were statistically analyzed by using the R-based age-period-cohort model web tool to estimate effect values. Results:There was a monotonic down ward trend in age-adjusted incidence for males,females and the total population(APC=AAPC=-7.3%,P < 0.001;APC=AAPC=-6.8%,P < 0.001;APC=AAPC=-7.1%,P < 0.001)and an overall down ward trend in age-adjusted mortality formales,females and the total population(APC=AAPC=-10.4%,P < 0.001;AAPC=-17.2%,P < 0.001;APC=AAPC=-10.0%,P < 0.001),with the population incidence rate reaching higher values at the age of 20-24 and 70-74,and the mortality rate reaching its highest value at the age of 80~84. With the risk of incidence and mortality decreasing overtime,the risk of incidence and mortality in the population gradually decreased as the birth cohort moved backwards. Conclusion:Focusing on the impact of age on tuberculosis,males,people aged 20-24 years and 70-74 years are populations with risk of tuberculosis incidence and people aged 80-84 years are populations with risk of tuberculosis mortality.

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张瑜,卢鹏,竺丽梅,陆伟,羊海涛.2005—2020年江苏省结核病发病和死亡趋势分析[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版英文版),2022,42(9):1309-1314.

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  • Online: September 14,2022
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