Analysis of the trend of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province from 2004 to 2022
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1.School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166 ; 2.Acute Infectious Disease Prevention andControl Institute ;3.National Health Commission(NHC)Key Laboratory of Enteric Pathogenic Microbiology ;4.JiangsuProvincial Health Emergency Engineering Research Center,Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control andPrevention,Nanjing 210009 ,China

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    Abstract:

    Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of public health emergencies of infectious disease in Jiangsu Province,and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control efforts. Methods:Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends,and space -time permutation scan was employed for spatiotemporal cluster detection and exploration. Results:From 2004 to 2022,a total of 3 641 emergencies were reported,with 131 880 cases and 73 deaths. There were 1 868 emergencies involving 25 notifiable infectious diseases,including 76 Class A,391 Class B,and 1 401 Class C diseases. Additionally,1 773 emergencies of 8 other non-notifiable infectious diseases were involved. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the number of emergencies in Jiangsu Province showed an increasing trend[average APC(AAPC)=16.28,P < 0.05)]. Class A showed a declining trend since 2006 (AAPC =-18.23,P < 0.05),while Class B,Class C,and others exhibited increasing trends(AAPC>0,P < 0.05). Emergencies in Southern of Jiangsu,Middle of jiangsu,and Northern of Jiangsu all showed increasing trend(AAPC>0,P < 0.05). In Southern of Jiangsu,the trend was characterized by 4 stages:rapid increase,slow increase,rapid increase,and decrease. In Middle of Jiangsu, Emergencies showed a monotonic increase. In Northern of Jiangsu,the trend was characterized by 4 stages:increase,slow decrease,rapid increase,and decrease. 2006,2015,and 2018 were major turning points. 8 space-time clusters were detected,sequentially distributed in midde of Jiangsu + Southern of Jiangsu,Northern of Jiangsu,Southern of Jiangsu,and Southern of Jiangsu+Northern of Jiangsu. Conclusion:In Jiangsu Province,infectious disease emergencies showed increasing trends,with clusters in southern and northern regions and relatively scattered in middle region. Priority areas need to focus on monitoring and controlling key diseases such as chickenpox,influenza,and hand foot and mouth disease(HFMD).

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陈紫颖,刘鑫,刘文东,沈文琪,吴莹,时影影,胡建利.江苏省2004—2022年传染病突发公共卫生事件趋势分析[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版英文版),2024,(8):1146-1154.

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  • Received:November 28,2023
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  • Online: August 09,2024
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