Construction and analysis of a preoperative prediction model for central lymph node metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma based on multimodal data
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

1Department of Laboratory Medicine,2Department of Nuclear Medicine,the First Affiliated Hospital of NanjingMedical University,Nanjing 210029 ; 3.Department of Laboratory Medicine,Nanjing Meishan Hospital,Nanjing 210039 ,China

Clc Number:

R736.1

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Objective:To develop and validate a multimodal data-based predictive model for central lymph node metastasis(CLNM) in patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma(MTC)and evaluate its clinical significance. Methods:We retrospectively analyzed clinical-pathological data,preoperative imaging features,and laboratory parameters of 104 MTC patients treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2017 and May 2025. Potential predictors(P < 0.1 in univariate analysis)were included in a multivariate logistic regression model with backward stepwise selection to identify independent risk factors for CLNM. A prediction model was constructed and a nomogram was drawn. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to evaluate the discrimination,calibration,and clinical applicability of the model. Internal validation was performed via bootstrap resampling. Results:According to the presence or absence of CLNM in the pathological results,104 MTC patients were classified into CLNM - positive(n=55)and CLNM - negative(n=49)groups. Compared to the CLNM - negative group,CLNM - positive patients showed significant differences in sex(P=0.001),whether the ultrasound(US)tumor morphology was regular(P < 0.001),whether US tumor margin was smooth(P < 0.001),serum carcinoembryonic antigen(CEA)level(P=0.006),and serum calcitonin(CT)level(P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified male gender(OR=6.50,95% CI:2.03-20.81;P=0.002),non-circumscribed US margins(OR=9.77,95% CI:3.12-30.59,P < 0.001),and elevated serum CT(OR=1.25,95% CI:1.10-1.42,P < 0.001)as independent risk factors for CLNM. The nomogram integrating these factors demonstrated excellent discrimination(AUC= 0.873,95% CI:0.808-0.939),with good calibration and clinical utility on DCA. Bootstrap validation confirmed model stability(AUC= 0.874,95% CI:0.865- 0.879). Conclusion:A multimodal model incorporating sex,US tumor margin status,and serum CT levels effectively predicts CLNM risk in MTC patients,providing a valuable tool for clinical decision-making.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

ZHANG Xiang, LIU Wei, YANG Qianqian, ZHANG Yan. Construction and analysis of a preoperative prediction model for central lymph node metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma based on multimodal data[J].,2026,46(1):14-20.

Copy
Related Videos

Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:August 15,2025
  • Revised:October 14,2025
  • Adopted:October 15,2025
  • Online: January 12,2026
  • Published:
Article QR Code