Analysis of the trend of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province from 2004 to 2022
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The 14th Five-Year Plan for Improving Science and Education Capacity in Jiangsu Province - Key Discipline of Epidemiology in Jiangsu Province (No. ZDXK202250);2023 Provincial Health Commission Targeted Commissioned Research Key Project - "Research on the Risk and Influencing Factors of Reinfection after the High-intensity Epidemic of the New Crown" (No. DX202302)

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    Abstract:

    Objective: To analyze the epidemic characteristics of the infectious disease public health emergencies in Jiangsu Province, and provide scientific basis for prevention and control efforts. Methods: Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends, space-time permutation scan was employed for spatiotemporal cluster detection and exploration. Results: From 2004 to 2022, a total of 3641 emergencies were reported, with 131,880 cases and 73 deaths. There were 1868 emergencies involving 25 notifiable infectious diseases, including 76 Class A, 391 Class B, and 1401 Class C diseases. Additionally, 1773 involved other 8 non-notifiable infectious diseases. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the emergencies in Jiangsu province showed an increasing trend (AAPC = 16.28, P<0.05). Class A showed a declining trend since 2006 (AAPC = -18.23, P <0.05), while Class B, Class C, and others exhibited increasing trends (AAPC> 0, P <0.05). The trend for others was characterized by 4 stages: rapid increase, slow decrease, increase and decrease. Emergencies in 3 regions all showed increasing trend (AAPC>0, P<0.05). In southern Jiangsu, the trend was characterized by 4 stages: rapid increase, slow increase, rapid increase, and decrease. In central Jiangsu, Emergencies showed a monotonic increase. In northern Jiangsu, the trend was characterized by 4 stages: increase, slow decrease, rapid increase, and decrease. 2006, 2015, and 2018 were major turning points. 8 space-time clusters were detected, sequentially distributed in central Jiangsu + southern Jiangsu, northern Jiangsu, southern Jiangsu, and southern Jiangsu + northern Jiangsu. Conclusion: In Jiangsu Province, infectious disease emergencies showed increasing trends, with clusters in southern and northern regions and relatively scattered in central region. Priority areas need to focus on monitoring and controlling key diseases such as chickenpox, influenza, and HFMD.

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History
  • Received:November 28,2023
  • Revised:May 01,2024
  • Adopted:August 01,2024
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