Application of time series analysis in the prediction of incidence trend of hepatitis E in Jiangsu province
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    Abstract:

    Objective: To explore the application of ARIMA model on prediction of hepatitis E in Jiangsu Province. Methods: Eviews 5.0 software was performed to construct the ARIMA mode based on monthly incidence of hepatitis E from 1997 Jan to 2009 Dec in Jiangsu province,and the constructed model was applied to predict the monthly incidence in 2010. Results: ARIMA(3,1,1)(1,1,0)12 exactly fitted the incidence of the previous time series,and got a good result on the predictive incidence in 2010. Conclusion: The ARIMA model can be used to make a short-term prediction and a dynamic analysis on hepatitis E.

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HU Jian-li, ZU Rong-qiang, PENG Zhi-hang, CHEN Feng, BAO Chang-jun. Application of time series analysis in the prediction of incidence trend of hepatitis E in Jiangsu province[J].,2011,(12):1874-1878.

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  • Received:May 29,2011
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