Forecast of SSRs in hemagglutinin sequences of influenza viruses A/H1N1
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    Abstract:

    Objective:To explore the feasibility of using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the relative abundance and relative density of simple sequence repeats(SSRs)in Hemagglutinin Sequences of influenza viruses A/H1N1,and to provide scientific basis for measures of preventing and controlling influenza pandemic. Methods:Eviews 6.0 software was utilized to construct the ARIMA model based on the relative abundance and relative density of SSRs in hemagglutinin (HA) sequences of influenza A with high homology from 1970 to 2007,and the constructed model was applied to predict the relative abundance and relative density from 2008 to 2010.The model was evaluated by actual data and then used to forecast the data of 2011. Results:The ARIMA model exactly fitted the relative abundance and relative density of the previous time series,and got a good predicting result on the data of 2008 to 2010. Conclusion:The ARIMA model can be used to make a short-term prediction and a dynamic analysis on the relative abundance and relative density of SSRs.

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吴 静,丁 勇,刘成友.甲型H1N1流感病毒HA基因的简单重复序列预测[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版英文版),2013,(1):42-47.

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History
  • Received:August 20,2012
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  • Online: March 25,2013
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