Application of multiple seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the incidence of hepatitis A in China
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    Abstract:

    Objective:To forecast the incidence of hepatitis A in China by multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model,and to provide decision basis for prevention and control of hepatitis A. Methods:ARIMA model was established according to the data of monthly reported hepatitis A cases in China from Jan.1994 to Dec.2012. Eviews 6.0 software was performed to construct the ARIMA model,and the constructed model was applied to predict monthly incidence in the first half of 2013. The model was evaluated by actual data. Results:ARIMA(1,1,0)(2,1,2)12 exactly fitted the incidence of the previous time series,and got a good result on the predictive incidence in 2013. Conclusion:The multiple seasonal ARIMA model can be performed to make a short-term prediction and a dynamic analysis on the incidence of hepatitis A in China,and can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis A.

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王 超,丁 勇,陆 群,吴 静. ARIMA乘积季节模型在我国甲肝发病预测中的应用[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版英文版),2014,(1):075-079.

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History
  • Received:July 06,2013
  • Revised:
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  • Online: January 27,2014
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