Establishment and evaluation of prognostic model for patients with acute paraquat poisoning based on support vector machine
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    Abstract:

    Objective:To compare the predictive performance of constructing the early prognostic model of acute paraquat(PQ)poisoning between support vector machine(SVM)and logistic regression. Methods:A total of 152 patients with acute PQ poisoning were collected and the clinical results were observed for 2 months. The patients were divided into two groups with a 3∶2 ratio by the random numerical table method. One group with a total of 91 cases was used as a training sample for selecting variables and establishing predictive models. Another group with a total of 61 cases was used as a validation sample to evaluate the predictive effect of the model. SVM and conventional logistic regression was used as the modeling method. Results:The prediction accuracy of the kernel,polynomial,sigmoid kernel and radial basis function nuclear SVM model was 77.92%,74.03%,75.32% and 79.22% respectively,when being tested by the validation group. The results of performance comparison showed that SVM models performed better than logistic regression model;RBF-SVM was the best among all the models with a sensitivity of 87.5% and a specificity of 70.6%. Conclusion:SVM model could preferably integrate all kinds of prognostic information of PQ poisoning patients,and the established model had better prediction ability,providing a new method for predicting the prognosis of patients with PQ poisoning.

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Yang Zhiyan, Huang Tianbao, Wang Shushan, Lin Huari, Zhou Junyi. Establishment and evaluation of prognostic model for patients with acute paraquat poisoning based on support vector machine[J].,2018,(10):1467-1471.

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  • Received:September 14,2017
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  • Online: November 08,2018
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