Objective：To explore the application of SARIMA-ERNN combination model in predicting the incidence of bacterial dysentery in China. Methods：Using the monthly incidence data of bacterial dysentery in China from January 2005 to December 2016 as the training set，the SARIMA model，the ERNN model，and the SARIMA-ERNN combination model were established respectively. The monthly incidence of bacterial dysentery in China in 2017 which was used to test the efficacy of the above models was used as a test set. Results：The MRE，MER，RMSE and MAE fitted and forecasted by SARIMA model were 5.661 37，0.061 81，0.001 45，0.000 94 and 5.596 40，0.051 77，0.004 54，0.000 34 respectively. The MRE，MER，RMSE and MAE fitted and forecasted by ERNN model fit and predicted were 5.348 57，0.056 05，0.017 08，0.000 79 and 5.544 30，0.044 55，0.000 36，0.000 30 respectively；The MRE，MER，RMSE and MAE fitted and forecasted by SARIMA-ERNN combination model were 4.924 25，0.047 33，0.001 15，0.000 72 and 4.251 30，0.044 19，0.000 38，0.000 29 respectively. Conclusion：The SARIMA-ERNN combination model has high validity and reasonability that can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of bacterial dysentery in China.