The incidence of hepatitis E in China predicted by multiple seasonal ARIMA model
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    Abstract:

    Objective:According to the seasonal and trend epidemic phenomenon of hepatitis E,the multiple seasonal ARIMA model was established to predict the infectious incidence of hepatitis E in China. Methods:SPSS23.0 software was used to model the monthly data of the epidemic of hepatitis E infectious diseases in China from January 2004 to June 2018,so as to predict the incidence of hepatitis E in the second half of 2018 and to evaluate the prediction effect of the model through the epidemic data during the period. Results:The average values of the prediction of the two models,ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1)12 and ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12,were used as the prediction values,the average relative error of the prediction was 4.69% and the standard deviation was 3.27%. Conclusion:Results of fitting and prediction of the multiple seasonal ARIMA model are good. The model can better describe the incidence trend of hepatitis E in China during the period,and provide certain scientific basis for the formulation of preventive control measures against hepatitis E and reasonable allocation of health resources.

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丁 勇,吴 静,武 丹,李 婉,张蓓蓓. ARIMA乘积季节模型预测我国戊肝的发病趋势[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版英文版),2020,(11):1725-1729.

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History
  • Received:August 09,2019
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  • Online: December 04,2020
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