Objective：To predict the trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in Nantong by using the autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model. Methods：Based on the monthly reported case data of hand-foot-mouth disease in Nantong from January 2010 to June 2019，a ARIMA（p，d，q）×（P，D，Q）S model was constructed in accordance with the seasonal time series. The monthly incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in the city from July to December 2019 was used as verification data to test the prediction effect of the model. Results：A total of 90 766 cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were reported in Nantong from 2010 to 2019. The average annual incidence rate was 124.36/100 000. The epidemic showed seasonality of incidence with two peaks. One was the summer peak and the other was the winter sub-peak. In recent years，the pathogenic spectrum of hand-foot-mouth disease in Nantong was dominated by other intestinal viruses. Using the ARIMA（1，0，1）（1，1，1）12 model，the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease from July to December 2019 wss predicted to be 7.08/100 000，1.81/100 000，3.74/100 000，7.21/100 000，10.71/100 000，and 11.29/100 000. Compared with the actual incidence，there was no significant difference. Conclusion：The autoregressive integrated moving average model can better predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease，and can be used for short-term early warning and monitoring.