Analysis of risk factors and establishment of warning model for benign infantile convulsions associated with mild gastroenteritis
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Objective:This study aims to explore the risk factors that affect the frequent occurrence of convulsions(>3 times)in benign infantile convulsions associated with mild gastroenteritis(BICE),establish a nomogram prediction model,and test its predictive ability. Methods:A retrospective analysis of the clinical data of 91 cases of BICE admitted to the Department of Pediatrics of Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University from October 2013 to December 2017 was conducted. According to the number of convulsions,they were divided into frequent convulsions group(>3 times)and control group(≤3 times). Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors affecting the frequency of convulsions,and construct a nomogram. The receiver operating curve(ROC)and area under the curve(AUC),consistency index(C-index),calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to test the predictive ability of the nomogram. Results:A total of 91 cases with BICE who met the criteria were enrolled,including 29 in the frequent convulsions group and 62 in the control group. The content of CD4 + and CD8 + T cells in the frequent convulsions group was significantly lower than that in the control group. The positive rate of rotavirus,IL-6,IL-10 and TNF-α levels were significantly higher than those in the control group,and the differences were statistically significant(all P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that rotavirus,CD4+ T cell content,IL-10 and TNF-α levels were independent risk factors affecting the frequency of convulsions in cases with BICE(P < 0.05). These four independent risk factors were incorporated and a nomogram was successfully constructed. AUC,C-index,calibration curve and DCA analysis showed that the nomogram has good prediction effect,and the actual observation has good consistency. Conclusion:The reconstructed nomogram based on rotavirus,CD4+ T cell content,IL-10 and TNF-α levels can more accurately predict the frequency of convulsions in children with BICE,which can provide references for clinical management and treatment of convulsions.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation

赵光耀,陆立东,童 晓,李成万,姜东林,唐国荣.轻度胃肠炎伴婴幼儿良性惊厥的危险因素分析及预警模型建立[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版英文版),2021,(8):1208-1213.

Copy
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:March 03,2021
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: August 30,2021
  • Published:
Article QR Code