Objective:To forecast the incidence rate of measles in Jiangsu province by ARIMA model and discuss the method to improve its veracity. Methods:Based on the reported data of measles of Jiangsu province from 1980 to 2005,model was fitted to check out the sample from 2006 to verify its practicability. Firstly,used the difference method to make the data sequence become placid. Secondly,parameters of model was estimated and set up a product season model by deciding the rank of it. Finally,the goodness-of-fit was given to analyze and evaluate the model. By which to explore the method to early warning of measles. Results:After an obviously ascending in 2005,the measles incidence rate kept steady,but for some slight fluctuation,which was fit to the practical situation. Conclusion:It is practical to apply the approach of ARIMA product season model to predict measles in Jiangsu Province by test,providing a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the epidemic.