OECD国家人口老龄化水平与卫生资源配置的门槛效应研究
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1.南京邮电大学人口研究院,江苏高质量发展综合评估研究基地,江苏 南京 210042 ;2.江苏卫生健康发展研究中心,江苏 南京 210042

作者简介:

周建芳(1973—),女,江苏南通人,教授,研究方向为人口老龄化、智慧养老;

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江苏省教育厅重大项目“中重度老龄化时期江苏卫生服务资源优化配置研究”(2024年度);江苏省卫生健康发展研究中心开放课题“深度老龄化社会卫生资源优化配置研究”(JSHD2022032)


A study on the threshold effect of population aging level and health resource allocation in OECD countries
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Affiliation:

1.Population Research Institute,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Jiangsu High Quality DevelopmentComprehensive Evaluation Research Base,Nanjing 210042 ;2.Jiangsu Health Development Research Center,Nanjing 210042 ,China

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    摘要:

    文章搜集32个已进入中重度老龄化社会的经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家1965— 2021年的1 824条面板数据,分析人口老龄化水平与卫生资源配置的内在规律,为我国规划卫生资源提供参考。结果显示,人口老龄化水平与卫生支出占国内生产总值(GDP)比重、每千人口医生数呈显著正相关,但与每千人口住院床位数呈负相关。人口老龄化水平与卫生支出占GDP比重存在 14.486%水平的结构性跃升,相关系数从0.112 9上升到0.169 1;在17.599%的水平上与每千人口医生数存在结构性跃升,相关系数从0.008 2上升到0.025 9;人口老龄化水平与每千人口住院床位数在中重度老龄化时期不存在显著的门槛效应。建议我国中重度老龄化地区加大卫生人力资源培养和资金投入力度,其他地区提前规划,以积极应对人口老龄化。

    Abstract:

    This research collected 1 824 panel data from 32 OECD countries that have entered moderately or severely aging societies from 1965 to 2021 to analyze the threshold effect of population aging on health resources and the inherent laws of population aging level and health resource allocation,which provides references for China’s planning of health resources. The results showed that the level of population aging was significantly positively correlated with the proportion of health expenditure to GDP and the number of doctors per thousand population,but negatively correlated with the number of hospital beds per thousand population. There was a structural leap of 14.486% between the population aging level and the proportion of health expenditure to GDP,with the correlation coefficient increasing from 0.112 9 to 0.169 1. At 17.599%,there was a structural jump in the number of doctors per thousand population,with a correlation coefficient increasing from 0.008 2 to 0.025 9. There was no significant threshold effect between the level of population aging and the number of inpatient beds per thousand population during moderate to severe aging. We recommended that China first increase the training and investment in health human resources in moderately or severely aging regions, while other regions should plan in advance to cope with population aging actively.

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周建芳,陈燕儿,林洁. OECD国家人口老龄化水平与卫生资源配置的门槛效应研究[J].南京医科大学学报(社会科学版),2024,(5):433~439

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-02
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-10-31
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