基于CHOPIT校正模型的健康预期寿命测算研究
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作者单位:

1.南京邮电大学理学院,江苏 南京 210023 ;2.南京市疾病预防控制中心慢病防制科,江苏 南京 210003

作者简介:

岑瑞云(1999—),女,江苏徐州人,硕士研究生在读,研究方向为人口统计与健康管理;
温勇(1962—),男,江苏南京人,教授,博士,研究方向为人口统计与健康管理,通信作者,ywen1108@njupt.edu.cn。

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中图分类号:

R195.3

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金“健康老龄化视角下老年人保健消费行为研究”(19BRK008)


Estimation of health life expectancy based on the CHOPIT correction model
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Affiliation:

1.School of Science,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023 ;2.Department of Chronic DiseaseControl,Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 210003 ,China

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    摘要:

    随着人口老龄化的加快和人均预期寿命的延长,健康预期寿命的研究格外受到重视。 文章利用南京市2023年18岁人口的抽样数据,基于自报健康标准和综合活动受限指数(global ac- tivity limitation indicator,GALI)量表健康标准,通过复合层次有序概率(compound hierarchical or- dered probit,CHOPIT)模型校正伤残测度,再运用Sullivan法测算南京市健康预期寿命。结果表明: ①两种健康标准下校正后伤残测度随年龄增加呈增长趋势,女性伤残测度高于男性,且校正数据符合人群健康水平。②自报健康标准下健康预期寿命显著低于GALI健康标准,且在高年龄组差距更明显。③两种健康标准下女性健康预期寿命占比小于男性,且女性高龄组健康状况较差。基于此,建议应多关注性别差异,重视健康预期寿命的研究,提高人群的健康水平,并完善老年人医疗卫生服务体系。

    Abstract:

    With the accelerating aging population and increasing average life expectancy,research on healthy life expectancy has received extra attention. This work utilized data from the 18-year-old population in Nanjing in 2023. Based on the self - reported health standards and GALI as health standards,the study used the CHOPIT model to estimate the disability measures. Furthermore,this study used the Sullivan method to calculate the health life expectancy in Nanjing. Our results indicate that:(1)Under both health standards,the adjusted disability measure shows an upward trend with age. As expected,the disability measures for females are higher than those for males. The corrected data is consistent with the population’s health status.(2)The healthy life expectancy under self-reported health standards is significantly lower than that under GALI health standards,and the gap is more pronounced in the older age group.(3)Under both health standards,the proportion of healthy life expectancy for females is smaller than that of males,and older female adults have poorer health status. Based on these findings,this study recommended focusing more on research regarding gender differences and healthy life expectancy,aiming to improve health levels and enhance the healthcare service system for older adults.

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岑瑞云,温勇,白贇,洪忻,王巍巍.基于CHOPIT校正模型的健康预期寿命测算研究[J].南京医科大学学报(社会科学版),2025,(1):21~28

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-26
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