我国养老服务设施供给和需求耦合协调度研究
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南通大学公共卫生学院,江苏 南通 226019

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仲亚琴(1979—),女,江苏南通人,博士,副教授,研究方向为社会医学与卫生事业管理;

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教育部人文社科规划基金“基于ABM的城市养老设施供需耦合研究”(21YJA840018);国家社会科学基金“失能老人居家照护者社会支持体系的构建及优化研究”(23BSH151)


Study on the coupling coordination degree of supply and demand of senior care facilities in China
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School of Public Health,Nantong University,Nantong 226019 ,China

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    摘要:

    引入物理学中的耦合理论,以2017—2023年我国养老服务设施为研究对象,运用熵值法、耦合协调模型等方法,分析我国养老服务设施供给与需求的时空演化特征。研究发现,我国各省份养老服务设施供给综合评价指数与需求综合评价指数均在稳步提升,但存在明显的地区分化趋势;绝大多数省份养老服务设施供需耦合度已经达到高水平耦合层次,供需系统的关联性较强; 养老服务设施供需耦合协调度仍处于较低耦合协调水平,时空演化特征明显,整体上呈现从东部地区向内陆递减的空间分布格局。基于此,政府部门应合理规划养老服务设施配置布局,各地区应结合社会经济发展特征和老年人口特点,因地制宜制定养老服务设施的发展战略,促进养老服务设施供需耦合协调发展。

    Abstract:

    Drawing on the coupling theory,this study takes the senior care facilities in China from 2017 to 2023 as the research object. The entropy method and the coupling coordination degree model are used to analyze the spatial - temporal evolution characteristics of the supply and demand for senior care facilities in China. The results show that both the comprehensive evaluation index of supply and demand of senior care facilities in all provinces have been steadily increasing,yet with an obvious trend of regional differentiation. The coupling degree between supply and demand of senior care facilities in most provinces has reached a high level coupling,indicating a strong correlation between the supply and demand systems. However,the coupling coordination degree between supply and demand still remains at a relatively low coupling coordination level. The spatial -temporal evolution of the coupling coordination degree of senior care facilities is evident,showing an overall decreasing spatial distribution pattern from the eastern region to the inland area. Based on this, governments should allocate and plan senior care facilities reasonably. All regions should formulate development strategies for senior care facilities tailored to local socio - economic characteristics and the demographic characteristics of older adults,so as to promote the coordinated coupling development of supply and demand for senior care facilities.

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仲亚琴,杨卓雅,徐文坤,曹欣.我国养老服务设施供给和需求耦合协调度研究[J].南京医科大学学报(社会科学版),2025,(4):347~355

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-27
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