安徽省医疗卫生服务能力与区域经济发展的耦合协调及其预测分析
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作者单位:

安徽中医药大学医药经济管理学院,安徽 合肥 230012

作者简介:

王洁(2001—),女,安徽六安人,硕士研究生在读,研究方向为中医药健康管理;

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中图分类号:

R197.1

基金项目:

安徽省研究生质量工程课程思政示范课程项目“公共管理学”(2023szsfkc086);安徽省研究生联合培养示范基地项目“安徽省健康文化旅游产业促进会研究生联合培养示范基地”(2024lhpysfjd049);安徽省教育厅人文社科重大项目“中医药助力‘大黄山’国际休闲度假旅游目的地建设对策研究”(2022AH040070)


Coupling coordination and predictive analysis of healthcare service capacity and regional economic development in Anhui Province
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Affiliation:

School of Pharmaceutical Economics and Management,Anhui University of Chinese Medicine,Hefei 230012 ,China

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    摘要:

    研究基于2016—2023年安徽省及皖南、皖北、皖中三大区域面板数据,运用耦合协调模型与组合预测方法,评估“十三五”期间医疗卫生与经济发展协同状况,并预测“十四五”和“十五五”时期演变趋势。通过构建包含17项指标的评价体系,采用熵值法确定权重,计算三个时期的耦合协调度,并结合灰色GM(1,1)模型与ARIMA模型对2024—2030年关键指标进行预测。研究结果显示,安徽省医疗卫生服务能力长期滞后于区域经济增长;耦合协调度提升呈现先升后降特征, 长期可持续性有待加强;区域间协调度差异显著,中部优势明显而南北地区发展滞后。基于此,应建立动态的政策保障体系,完善公共卫生应急管理系统,推动区域合作,构建全省联动机制,同时创新投入机制,深化系统改革,以促进医疗卫生与经济协调发展。

    Abstract:

    Based on the panel data of Anhui Province and its three major regions of southern,northern and central Anhui from 2016 to 2023,this study used a coupling coordination model and combination forecasting to evaluate the coupling coordination status of healthcare and economic development during the 13th Five - Year Plan period,while predicting the evolutionary trends for the 14th Five - Year Plan and 15th Five - Year Plan period. Through the construction of an evaluation system comprising 17 indicators,with the weight determined by the entropy method,and the coupling coordination degree of three periods is calculated. The key indicators from 2024 to 2030 were forecasted by combining the Grey GM(1,1)model and the ARIMA model. The results show that the healthcare service capacity in Anhui Province has long lagged behind the regional economic growth and the coupling coordination degree exhibits a pattern of initial increase followed by decline,indicating insufficient long - term sustainability that requiring further strengthened. Significant disparities existed across regions,with Central Anhui showing a clear advantage while the northern and southern regions lag behind. Based on these,it is vital to establish a dynamic policy guarantee system,improve the public health emergency management system,promote regional cooperation for a provincial linkage mechanism. At the same time,the study recommends innovating the investment mechanism while deepening the system reform to promote the coordinated development of healthcare services and economy.

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引用本文

王洁,张静.安徽省医疗卫生服务能力与区域经济发展的耦合协调及其预测分析[J].南京医科大学学报(社会科学版),2025,25(5):498~504

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-31
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