基于仿真模拟实验的城市老年人生命旺盛现象网络结构传染特征分析
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1.黑龙省哈尔滨市哈尔滨医科大学卫生管理学院;2.浙江省杭州市杭州师范大学公共卫生学院

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Analysis of network structure infection characteristics of phenomenon of life thriving among urban older adults based on simulation experiment
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Department of Medical Education Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin

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    摘要:

    生命旺盛现象的复杂网络,具有小世界特性,符合行为传播交流特点。论文在经典SIR模型基础上,运用NetLogo仿真平台,构建生命旺盛现象传播网络并研究其传播机制,探究城市老年人生命旺盛现象网络结构传染特征。当仿真实验中生命旺盛现象传染率等于、大于和小于免疫率时,三次模拟实验的生命旺盛曲线、生命不旺盛曲线、潜在生命旺盛状态曲线均出现四次交点,建立四次状态平衡。因此,生命旺盛感的传染具有系统延迟性、复杂特征以及级联扩散效应。社会网络的初始状态、生命旺盛现象的传染率和免疫率影响旺盛传染曲线的峰值特征。时序视角下生命旺盛现象不同强度的干预效果的传染特征不同。

    Abstract:

    The complex network of phenomenon of life thriving has the characteristics of a small world and conforms to the characteristics of behavior communication and communication. Based on the classical SIR model, using the NetLogo simulation modeling to analyzes the propagation characteristics and laws of thriving in time and cyberspace under different conditions. This paper constructs the transmission network of the phenomenon of life thriving and studies the transmission mechanism, and explores the structural transmission characteristics of phenomenon of life thriving of urban older adults. This covers the infectious track and characteristics of the network structure of the thriving life phenomenon of older adults in four cities. Simulation experiment 1 is when the infectious rate of thriving in life is equal to the immune rate, simulation experiment 2 is when the infectious rate of thriving in life is greater than the immune rate, and simulation experiment 3 is when the infectious rate of thriving in life is less than the immune rate, there are four intersections among the thriving, non-thriving, and potentially thriving populations and four equilibria are established. Compared with the simulation experiments 1 and 2, simulation experiment 3 area in the middle of the focus part of exuberant, not exuberant, and susceptible is smaller, and the order of establishing the balance changes. The time of establishing the balance is longer than the balance in experiment 1 and shorter than the balance time in experiment 2. The duration of the exuberant phenomenon is relatively short in simulation experiments 3. Hence,under the different simulation conditions, the infection phenomenon of network structure is characterized by infection delay, complexity, and cascade diffusion among urban older adults. The initial state of the social network, the transmission rate of the exuberant phenomenon, and the immunization rate affect the peak characteristics of the exuberant infection curve.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-30
  • 最后修改日期:2023-08-20
  • 录用日期:2023-09-01
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