OECD国家人口老龄化水平与卫生资源配置的门槛效应研究
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南京邮电大学

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国家社会科学基金重点项目“居家养老家庭支持体系研究”(20ARK003);江苏省卫生健康发展研究中心开放课题“深度老龄化社会卫生资源优化配置研究”(JSHD2022032)。


A Study on the Threshold Effect of Population Aging Level and Health Resource Allocation in OECD Countries
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Key Project of the National Social Science Foundation of China "Research on the Support System for Home-based Elderly Care Families" (20ARK003); The open project of Jiangsu Health Development Research Center is "Research on Optimizing the Allocation of Health Resources in Deep Aging Society" (JSHD2022032).

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    摘要:

    为分析中重度老龄化国家人口老龄化水平与卫生资源配置的内在规律,为我国规划卫生资源提供前瞻性参考,搜集32个OECD国家1965年至2021年间的1824条面板数据,进行门槛效应分析。结果显示:人口老龄化水平与卫生支出占GDP比重、每千人口医生数呈显著正相关关系,r值分别为0.552和0.576,但与每千人口住院床位数呈现负相关关系(r= -0.146)。人口老龄化水平与卫生支出占GDP比重存在14.486%水平的结构性跃升,相关系数从0.1129上升到0.1691;在17.599%的水平上与每千人口医生数存在结构性跃升,相关系数从0.0082上升到0.0259;人口老龄化水平与每千人口住院床位数在中重度老龄化时期不存在显著的门槛效应。建议我国先行进入中重度老龄化地区加大卫生人力资源培养和资金投入力度,其他地区超前规划,以积极应对人口老龄化。

    Abstract:

    To analyze the inherent laws of population aging level and health resource allocation in countries with moderate to severe aging, and provide reference for China's planning of health resources,this research collected 1824 panel data from 32 OECD countries from 1965 to 2021 to analyze the threshold effect of population aging on health resources. Results showed that: The level of population aging was significantly positively correlated with the proportion of health expenditure to GDP and the number of doctors per thousand population, with r values of 0.552 and 0.576, respectively, but negatively correlated with the number of hospital beds per thousand population (r=-0.146). There was a structural leap of 14.486% between the level of population aging and the proportion of health expenditure to GDP, with a correlation coefficient increasing from 0.1129 to 0.1691; At the level of 17.599%, there was a structural jump in the number of doctors per thousand population, with a correlation coefficient increasing from 0.0082 to 0.0259; There was no significant threshold effect between the level of population aging and the number of hospital beds per thousand population during the period of moderate to severe aging. It is recommended that China first enter areas with moderate to severe aging and increase efforts in training and investing in health human resources, while other regions plan ahead to actively respond to population aging.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-06-02
  • 最后修改日期:2024-07-13
  • 录用日期:2024-07-15
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