中部地区医疗服务、基本医疗保障、医药产业耦合协调研究
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安徽中医药大学

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安徽省紧密型县域医共体慢病健康管理服务能力评价及路径创新


Research on the Coupling and Coordination of Medical Services, Basic Medical Security, and Pharmaceutical Industry in Central China
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Anhui University of Chinese Medicinedeng

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Evaluation and Path Innovation of Chronic Disease Health Management Service Capacity in the Close-Knit County Medical Consortium in Anhui Province

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    摘要:

    目的:探究中部六省医疗服务、基本医疗保障、医药产业耦合协调发展的时空演变规律以及预测2025—2030年耦合协调度变化趋势,为推进三医联动背景下中部六省医疗卫生事业有序发展提供参考依据。方法:运用耦合协调度模型对中部六省三医耦合协调度的时空演变进行分析,在此基础上运用灰色预测模型动态预测2025—2030年中部地区耦合协调水平的未来发展变化。结果:2018—2022年中部六省三医耦合协调水平稳步上升,但整体水平较低,区域差距显著。预测显示到2030年中部六省全部处于协调水平,其中四省进入高水平耦合阶段。结论:中部六省应该进一步强化基层医疗服务能力,推进医保支付方式改革,加大财政支持,推动医药产业转型升级。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To explore the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the coupling and coordinated development of medical services, basic medical security, and the pharmaceutical industry in the six central provinces of China, and to predict the changing trends of their coupling coordination degrees from 2025 to 2030, thereby providing references for advancing the orderly development of healthcare under the "Three-Medical Linkage" (integration of medical services, medical insurance, and pharmaceutical reforms) framework.Methods: A coupling coordination degree model was employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the "Three-Medical" coupling coordination levels in the six central provinces. Based on this, a grey prediction model was applied to dynamically forecast future trends in coupling coordination levels from 2025 to 2030.Results: From 2018 to 2022, the coupling coordination levels of the "Three-Medical" systems in the six central provinces steadily increased, but the overall level remained low with significant regional disparities. Predictions indicate that by 2030, all six provinces will reach coordinated levels, with four provinces entering a high-level coupling stage.Conclusion: The six central provinces should further strengthen primary medical service capabilities, promote reforms in medical insurance payment methods, increase fiscal support, and facilitate the transformation and upgrading of the pharmaceutical industry.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-09
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-25
  • 录用日期:2025-05-26
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