我国养老服务设施供给和需求耦合协调度研究
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江苏省南通市南通大学

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教育部人文社科规划基金;国家社会科学基金


Study on the Coordination of Supply and Demand of Elderly service facilities in China
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NANTONG UNIVERSITY

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    摘要:

    引入物理学中的耦合理论,以2017至2023年我国养老服务设施为研究对象,运用熵值法、耦合协调模型等方法,分析我国养老服务设施供给与需求的时空演化特征。研究发现,我国各省份养老服务设施供给综合评价指数与需求综合评价指数均在稳步提升,但存在明显的地区分化趋势;绝大多数省份养老服务设施供需耦合关系已经达到高水平耦合层次,供需系统的关联性较强;但养老服务设施供需耦合协调关系仍处于较低耦合协调水平;养老服务设施供需耦合协调度的时空演化特征明显,整体上呈现从东部地区向内陆递减的空间分布格局。基于此,政府部门应合理规划养老服务设施配置布局,各地区应结合社会经济发展特征和老年人口特点,因地制宜制定养老服务设施的发展战略,促进养老服务设施供需耦合协调发展。

    Abstract:

    By introducing the coupling theory, taking the elderly service facilities in China from 2017 to 2023 as the research object, the entropy method and the coupling coordination model are used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the supply and demand of elderly service facilities in China. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation index of supply and demand of elderly care facilities in all provinces are steadily increasing, but there is an obvious trend of regional differentiation. The coupling relationship between supply and demand of elderly service facilities in most provinces has reached a high-level coupling level. However, the coupling coordination between and demand is still at a low coupling coordination level. The spatial and temporal evolution of the coordination degree of supply and demand coupling of elderly care service facilities is obvious, showing a decreasing spatial distribution pattern from the eastern region to the inland. Based on this, governments should allocate elderly service facilities reasonably, and all regions should formulate development strategies for elderly service facilities according to local social and economic status and the characteristics of the elderly, so as to promote the coupling and coordinated development of supply and demand of elderly service facilities.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-14
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-03
  • 录用日期:2025-06-04
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