文章摘要
郭玉秀,宋国强,周荣耀.GM(1,1)模型在江苏省5岁以下儿童死亡率预测中的应用[J].南京医科大学学报(社会科学版),2018,(4):296~298
GM(1,1)模型在江苏省5岁以下儿童死亡率预测中的应用
Application of gray model (1,1) in prediction of child mortality rate under age 5 in Jiangsu Province
投稿时间:2018-02-26  
DOI:10.7655/NYDXBSS20180410
中文关键词: 5岁以下儿童死亡率  GM(1,1)模型  预测
英文关键词: child mortality rate under age 5  grey model(1,1)  prediction
基金项目:安徽省高等学校自然科学研究重点项目“一维双曲平衡律及其松弛问题的研究”(KJ2012A171)
作者单位
郭玉秀 安徽医科大学卫生管理学院安徽 合肥 230032 
宋国强 安徽医科大学卫生管理学院安徽 合肥 230032 
周荣耀 安徽医科大学卫生管理学院安徽 合肥 230032 
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中文摘要:
      运用Matlab软件建立GM(1,1)模型,对江苏省2005—2016年5岁以下儿童死亡率数据进行分析,预测2017—2020年江苏省5岁以下儿童死亡率,为妇幼保健工作提供参考。建立的预测模型为:[[x](1(t+1)=-121.349e-0.0628t+129.909;经模型精度检验:C=0.103 7,P=1,结果表明预测效果好;2017—2020年5岁以下儿童死亡率的预测值分别为:3.70‰、3.48‰、3.26‰、3.07‰。灰色GM(1,1)模型能较好预测5岁以下儿童死亡率,预测结果表明江苏省5岁以下儿童死亡率呈下降趋势,同时应加大对儿童健康的关注,把5岁以下儿童死亡率控制在更低的水平。
英文摘要:
      By analysis of child mortality rate under age 5 in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2016, we aimed to forecast child mortality rate under age 5 from 2017 to 2020 in order to provide references for maternal and child health care. The gray model GM (1,1) was established by Matlab software to predict the child mortality rate under age 5 in Jiangsu Province. The established prediction model was [x(1)(t+1)=-121.349e-0.062 8t]+129.909, and the predictive accuracy of the model established was at a high level: C=0.103 7, P=1. The model precision was good. The predicted child mortality rate under age 5 for 2017 to 2020 was 3.70 ‰, 3.48 ‰, 3.26 ‰, 3.07 ‰, respectively. GM (1,1) can predict the child mortality rate under age 5, and the child mortality rate under age 5 in Jiangsu Province will decline continuously. At the same time, more attention should be paid to the health of children, so as to keep the child mortality rate under age 5 at a lower level.
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