2005—2020年江苏省结核病发病和死亡趋势分析
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R181.8

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国家自然科学基金(82003516);江苏省卫健委医学科研面上项目(M2020020);江苏省科协青年科学人才托举工程


Trend analysis of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2020
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    摘要:

    目的:分析江苏省2005—2020年结核病发病和死亡趋势,并探讨年龄、时期及队列对其影响,为后期更好地控制结核病提供科学依据。方法:采用Joinpoint回归方法分析江苏省2005—2020年结核病发病与死亡数据,计算其年度变化百分比 (annual percent change,APC)和平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC),采用基于R语言的年龄-时期-队列模型网络工具对0~89岁人群的数据进行统计分析,估算其效应值。结果:男性、女性及总人口年龄调整发病率呈现下降趋势 (APC=AAPC=-7.3%,P < 0.001;APC=AAPC=-6.8%,P < 0.001;APC=AAPC=-7.1%,P < 0.001),男性、女性及总人口年龄调整死亡率总体呈现下降趋势(APC=AAPC=-10.4%,P < 0.001;AAPC=-17.2%,P < 0.001;APC=AAPC=-10.0%,P < 0.001),人群发病率均在20~24岁及70~74岁达到较高值,死亡率在80~84岁达到最高值,人群发病及死亡风险随着时期推移逐渐下降,越晚出生的队列发病及死亡风险越低。结论:重点关注年龄对结核病的影响,男性、20~24岁和70~74岁人群是结核病发病的高危人群,80~84岁年龄段人群是结核病死亡的高危人群。

    Abstract:

    Objective:This study aims to analyze the trends of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2020,and to explore the effects of age,period and cohort on them,so as to provide a scientific basis for better control of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in the later period. Methods:Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in Jiangsu province from 2005 to 2020,annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC)were calculated. The data for people aged 0~89 years old were statistically analyzed by using the R-based age-period-cohort model web tool to estimate effect values. Results:There was a monotonic down ward trend in age-adjusted incidence for males,females and the total population(APC=AAPC=-7.3%,P < 0.001;APC=AAPC=-6.8%,P < 0.001;APC=AAPC=-7.1%,P < 0.001)and an overall down ward trend in age-adjusted mortality formales,females and the total population(APC=AAPC=-10.4%,P < 0.001;AAPC=-17.2%,P < 0.001;APC=AAPC=-10.0%,P < 0.001),with the population incidence rate reaching higher values at the age of 20-24 and 70-74,and the mortality rate reaching its highest value at the age of 80~84. With the risk of incidence and mortality decreasing overtime,the risk of incidence and mortality in the population gradually decreased as the birth cohort moved backwards. Conclusion:Focusing on the impact of age on tuberculosis,males,people aged 20-24 years and 70-74 years are populations with risk of tuberculosis incidence and people aged 80-84 years are populations with risk of tuberculosis mortality.

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张瑜,卢鹏,竺丽梅,陆伟,羊海涛.2005—2020年江苏省结核病发病和死亡趋势分析[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2022,42(9):1309-1314

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-09-14
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