Objective：To explore the risk factors for postoperative recurrence of atrial fibrillation after concomitant Maze Ⅳ ablation for cardiac surgery and construct a nomogram model for risk prediction. Methods：Data were collected from 596 patients who underwent concurrent cardiac surgery and Maze Ⅳ ablation at the Department of Cardiac Macrovascular Surgery of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University，from January 2014 to December 2022. Patients were divided into two groups based on whether atrial fibrillation recurred within 1 year postoperatively. Univariate chi-square test，multivariate logistic regression，and Cox regression models were used to analyze the independent risk factors for atrial fibrillation recurrence within 1 year postoperatively and to construct a risk prediction model. Results：Among the 596 patients，150（25.2%）experienced recurrences. Univariate analysis showed that age， duration of atrial fibrillation，left atrium diameter（LAD），right atrium diameter（RAD），prior pacemaker placement，and early atrial fibrillation recurrence were risk factors for postoperative recurrence of atrial fibrillation，while multifactorial analysis showed that age， duration of atrial fibrillation，LAD，and early atrial fibrillation recurrence were independent risk factors. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that age[HR=1.035（1.025-1.068），P ＜ 0.001]，duration of atrial fibrillation（HR=1.003[1.001-1.006]，P=0.003），LAD [HR=1.025（1.006- 1.044），P=0.009]，use of a hinged ablation forceps[HR=3.269（2.083- 5.130]，P ＜ 0.001]，and early postoperative atrial fibrillation recurrence[HR=3.592（2.532-5.095），P ＜ 0.001]were significantly associated with atrial fibrillation recurrence. According to the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis，the cut-off values for age，duration of atrial fibrillation， and LAD were 59.5 years，9.5 months，and 51.5 cm，respectively. Conclusion：Maze Ⅳ has good long -term efficacy in maintaining sinus rhythm. In patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing cardiac surgery，older age，longer LAD，and longer duration of atrial fibrillation can adversely affect the ablation outcome. The hazard model constructed based on these results has good predictive performance.