2010—2024年江苏省乙型病毒性肝炎流行趋势与特征
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江苏省疾病预防控制中心性病与艾滋病防制所,江苏 南京 210009

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国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10715-002);十四五流行病学重点学科(ZDXK202250)


Epidemic trends and characteristics of hepatitis B virus in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2024
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Institution of STD and AIDS Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009 , China

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    摘要:

    目的:了解江苏省乙型病毒性肝炎(hepatitis B virus,HBV)流行特征及趋势,为制定消除HBV公共健康威胁提供依据。方法:对2010—2024年江苏省HBV报告发病率年龄别标化(age-standardized incidence rate,HBV-ASIR)后进行流行病学分析,SaTScan 9.5软件进行时空扫描,ArcMap10.2将扫描结果可视化,Join-point回归进行趋势检验,季节性自回归移动平均乘积模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)预测短期流行趋势,年龄-时期-出生队列模型评估HBV-ASIR的年龄、时期和出生队列效应。结果:江苏省HBV-ASIR由2010年的16.03/10万上升至2024年的23.57/10万,年均上升2.79%。HBV-ASIR高的地区主要集中在泰州、淮安、宿迁、徐州等地,既往HBV-ASIR低的地区增长较快。2010—2024年,HBV-ASIR有时空聚集性,一类聚集区集中在2012年8月—2017年2月的淮安北部和宿迁全市,二类聚集区主要集中在2020年1—12月的徐州市北部地区。HBV-ASIR男性高于女性,男女性别比平均为1.95:1。30岁以下年龄组HBV-ASIR从2010年的11.75/10万下降到2024年的6.16/10万,年均下降幅度为4.51%,30岁以上年龄组HBV-ASIR不同程度上升,但70岁以上年龄组年均增幅最高(9.21%)。职业分布以农民为主。HBV 最适模型ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12预测结果显示,2025—2027年江苏省HBV报告发病呈平稳波动态势。年龄效应结果显示,以30~34岁为参照(RR=1),江苏省25岁以下年龄组HBV-ASIR风险较低(RR<1),50岁以上年龄组HBV-ASIR(除55~59岁外)效应值随年龄增长缓慢增长(RR>1);时期效应结果显示,以2010—2014年为参考(RR=1),HBV-ASIR风险系数随时期增长增加显著(RR>1);队列效应显示,以1925—1929年出生队列为参考(RR=1),1980—1984年出生人群HBV-ASIR效应值最高,1985年之后出生人群HBV-ASIR效应值快速下降(RR>1),1930—1979年出生的人HBV-ASIR效应值呈逐年上升趋势(RR>1)。结论:HBV仍然是江苏省重要的公共卫生问题之一,应结合HBV流行特点,重点加强30岁以上人群的综合防控。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To investigate the trends and characteristics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) epidemiology in Jiangsu, and to provide scientific evidence for the plan of eliminating HBV related threats on public health. Methods: An epidemiological analysis was performed on HBV age-standardized incidence rate (HBV-ASIR) from Jiangsu Province between 2010 and 2024. We mapped spatial characteristics by SaTScan 9.5 and ArcMap 10.2, performed trend testing by Joinpoint regression analysis, predicted short-term future epidemic trends by seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and evaluated the age, period, and birth cohort effects by age-period-cohort model on HBV-ASIR. Results: The reported HBV-ASIR increased yearly from 16.03 per 100 000 in 2010 to 23.57 per 100 000 in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 2.79%. The areas with high HBV-ASIR included Taizhou, Huai' an, Suqian, and Xuzhou in Jiangsu. HBV-ASIR exhibited spatiotemporal clustering. A primary cluster was identified in northern Huai ' an and the entire Suqian from August 2012 to February 2017. A secondary cluster was mainly concentrated in northern Xuzhou from January to December in 2020. Male HBV-ASIR predominated with an average male/female ratio of 1.95:1. The HBV-ASIR decreased from 11.75 per 100 000 in 2010 to 6.16 per 100 000 in 2024 in the age group of less than 30 years, with an average annual decrease rate of 4.51%. While, an increasing trend was observed in the age group of more than 30 years, the highest increasing percentage (9.21%)was observed in the age group of more than 70 years. For occupations, peasant workers accounted for the biggest proportion of HBV cases. The optimal model of HBV-ASIR was ARIMA (1, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12, predicting that the HBV report incidence would fluctuate stably in 2025-2027. For age-period-cohort model, age effect indicated that HBV-ASIR risk was lower in the age groups less than 25 years(RR<1) than in the reference age group of 30-34(RR=1), while the risk was higher in the age groups more than 50 years (except for 55-59)(RR>1)than in the reference age group. Compared with reference period of 2010-2014 for period effect(RR=1), HBV-ASIR risk increased following the period advancing (RR>1). With the 1925- 1929 birth cohort as the reference (RR=1), the cohort effects revealed that the highest HBV-ASIR risk was among the birth cohort in 1980- 1984. After 1985, HBV-ASIR risk declined rapidly(RR>1), while for those born between 1930 and 1979,the HBV-ASIR risk showed increasing trend year-by-year(RR>1). Conclusion: HBV remains a major public health threat in Jiangsu, and measures based on the epidemiological features are urgently needed, especiallyin a population aged more than 30 years.

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史灵恩,孙琦,尤心仪,刘晓燕,陈禹衡,卢静,杨丹丹.2010—2024年江苏省乙型病毒性肝炎流行趋势与特征[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2026,(10):1499-1510

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-24
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-25
  • 录用日期:2026-02-06
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-10-19
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