预测输尿管结石体外冲击波碎石疗效列线图模型的建立
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南京医科大学第一附属医院

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Development of a nomogram to predict the successful shock wave lithotripsy of ureteral stones
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    摘要:

    目的: 建立并验证预测输尿管结石体外冲击波碎石(Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotrispy, SWL)单次治疗成功的列线图。 方法: 回顾性分析2019年1月至2020年3月本院接受SWL治疗的输尿管结石患者的临床及影像学资料。采用单因素及多因素Logistic分析,确定单次SWL治疗成功的独立预测因素,并进一步运用R软件建立列线图预测模型。绘制受试者工作曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)评价预测模型的预测能力,采用Bootstrap内部验证法通过模型绘制预测值与实际值的校准图进行一致性测试。 结果: 共纳入216例患者,年龄为(47.50±14.67)岁,其中男性179例(82.9%)。单次治疗成功率为71.76%。多因素分析结果显示:结石位置,结石横径最小值,平均CT值及肾绞痛是单次SWL治疗成功的独立影响因素。基于以上的4个独立预测因素建立列线图模型,该列线图模型预测单次SWL治疗成功的ROC曲线下面积为0.789。绘制的预测值与实际值的校准图显示相关性良好。 结论: 基于输尿管结石患者临床及影像学特征建立的列线图预测模型,有助于预测单次SWL治疗效果,为输尿管结石SWL治疗适合病例的选择提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Purpose: To develop and validate a nomogram to predict treatment success after one session shock wave lithotripsy(SWL) in patients with ureteral stone. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of clinical and CT image database of patients who received SWL between January 2019 and March 2020 in our hospital. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determined predictors of single session success after SWL treatment. A nomogram was developed with further use of R software. The discrimination performance of the nomogram was examined by using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Calibration plot of predicted probabilities from the nomogram versus the actual probabilities was drawn using bootstrap resampling to assess the the calibration of the nomogram. Results: A total of 216 patients, including 179 men(82.9%), were enrolled in this study. The median age was 47.50±14.67 years. The one session success rates of SWL were 71.76%. Multivariate analysis results showed that stone location, minimal transverse diameter, mean stone density and colic pain were independent predictors of one session success after SWL. A nomogram was developed using the above four independent predictors,with an area under the ROC of 0.789. The calibration curve of the nomogram demonstrated good agreement between predicted and actual probabilities. Conclusion: This study presents a nomogram based on clinical and radiologic characteristics, which can be used to predict one session success after SWL treatment of ureteral stone and guide selection of the optimal treatment.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-09-16
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-21
  • 录用日期:2021-06-21
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