Abstract:Purpose: To develop and validate a nomogram to predict treatment success after one session shock wave lithotripsy(SWL) in patients with ureteral stone. Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of clinical and CT image database of patients who received SWL between January 2019 and March 2020 in our hospital. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to determined predictors of single session success after SWL treatment. A nomogram was developed with further use of R software. The discrimination performance of the nomogram was examined by using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Calibration plot of predicted probabilities from the nomogram versus the actual probabilities was drawn using bootstrap resampling to assess the the calibration of the nomogram. Results: A total of 216 patients, including 179 men(82.9%), were enrolled in this study. The median age was 47.50±14.67 years. The one session success rates of SWL were 71.76%. Multivariate analysis results showed that stone location, minimal transverse diameter, mean stone density and colic pain were independent predictors of one session success after SWL. A nomogram was developed using the above four independent predictors,with an area under the ROC of 0.789. The calibration curve of the nomogram demonstrated good agreement between predicted and actual probabilities. Conclusion: This study presents a nomogram based on clinical and radiologic characteristics, which can be used to predict one session success after SWL treatment of ureteral stone and guide selection of the optimal treatment.