2005-2020年江苏省结核病发病和死亡趋势分析
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1.东南大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系;2.江苏省疾病预防控制中心慢性传染病防制所

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国家自然科学基金 (82003516), 江苏省卫健委医学科研面上项目(M2020020),江苏省科协青年科学人才托举工程


Trend analysis of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province, 2005-2020
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Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Southeast University

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    摘要:

    目的:分析江苏省2005-2020年结核病发病和死亡趋势,并探讨年龄、时期及队列对其的影响,为后期更好控制结核病的发病及死亡提供科学依据。方法:采用Joinpoint回归分析江苏省2005-2020年结核病发病与死亡数据,计算其年度变化百分比(annual percent change, APC)和平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change, AAPC),采用基于R语言的年龄-时期-队列模型网络工具对0-89岁人群的数据进行统计分析,估算其效应值。结果:男性、女性及总人口年龄调整化发病率呈现单调下降趋势(APC=AAPC=-7.3%,P<0.001;APC=AAPC=-6.8%,P<0.001;APC=AAPC=-7.1%,P<0.001),男性、女性及总人口年龄调整化死亡率总体呈现下降趋势(APC=AAPC=-10.4%,P<0.001;AAPC=-17.2%,P<0.1;APC=AAPC=-10.0%, P<0.001),人群发病率均在20-24岁及70-74岁达到较高值,死亡率在80-84岁达到最高值,人群发病及死亡风险随着时期的推移逐渐下降,越晚出生的队列发病及死亡风险越低。结论:重点关注男性、20-24岁和70-74岁年龄段人群的发病率,以及80-84岁年龄段人群的结核病死亡率,应采取相应的策略与措施来控制结核病的发生和发展。

    Abstract:

    Objective: This study aimed to analyze the trends of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2020, and to explore the effects of age, period and cohort on them, so as to provide a scientific basis for better control of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in the later period. Methods: Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in Jiangsu province from 2005 to 2020. And annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated. The data were statistically analyzed by using the R-based age-period-cohort model web tool for the 0-89 age group to estimate effect values. Results: There was a monotonic downward trend in age-adjusted morbidity for males, females and the total population (APC=AAPC=-7.3%, P<0.001; APC=AAPC=-6.8%, P<0.001; APC=AAPC=-7.1%, P<0.001) and an overall downward trend in age-adjusted mortality for males, females and the total population (APC= AAPC=-10.4%, P<0.001; AAPC=-17.2%, P<0.1; APC=AAPC=-10.0%, P<0.001), with the population morbidity rate reaching higher values at ages 20-24 and 70-74, and the mortality rate reaching its highest value at ages 80-84, with the risk of morbidity and mortality decreasing over time, the later the birth cohort The risk of morbidity and mortality decreases over time, with the later the birth cohort, the lower the risk of morbidity and mortality. Conclusions: More attention should be paid on those individuals, who were, 20-24 and 70-74 age groups, and on mortality in the 80-84 age group. Strategies and measures should be taken to control the incidence and progression of tuberculosis.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-09-17
  • 最后修改日期:2022-03-11
  • 录用日期:2022-08-11
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