基于SEER数据库的胰腺粘液腺癌生存预测模型的构建与验证
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1.南京医科大学附属明基医院,南京医科大学胰腺研究所;2.南京医科大学胰腺研究所,南京医科大学第一附属医院胰腺中心;3.南京医科大学附属明基医院,南京医科大学胰腺研究所,南京医科大学第一附属医院胰腺中心

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Construction and Validation of a Survival Prediction Model for Pancreatic Colloid Carcinoma Based on the SEER database
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

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    摘要:

    目的:胰腺导管腺癌(Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma,PDAC)是一种恶性程度极高,预后极差的肿瘤。PDAC有多种亚型,包括腺鳞癌、肝样腺癌、髓样癌、印戒细胞癌、未分化癌、伴破骨细胞样巨细胞的未分化癌、粘液腺癌和其他类型。目前,关于胰腺恶性肿瘤的预后模型研究主要集中于PDAC,然而由于粘液腺癌的报告量稀少,研究样本量小,其预后的危险因素始终未达成共识。本研究旨在明确影响CC预后的危险因素,构建出临床预后模型,对患者生存预后进行评估。方法:本研究选取了SEER数据库中510例患者,将其分为训练集和验证集,并根据训练集的临床变量构建了预后模型,以预测CC在1年、3年、5年的癌症特异性存活率的概率值,而后用验证集验证训练队列筛选出的变量及校准预测模型。结果:本研究利用SEER数据库探讨了影响CC预后的危险因素:年龄、性别、检出淋巴结数量、是否手术、T分期、转移。结论:本研究构建出临床预后模型,并利用此模型对患者的生存预后进行了有效评估,填补了这种罕见肿瘤预后研究的空白。为临床医生评估患者预后提供了一项有力依据

    Abstract:

    Objective: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a highly malignant tumor with a very poor prognosis. There are various subtypes of PDAC including Adenosquamous carcinoma, Colloid carcinoma (mucinous non-cystic carcinoma), Hepatoid carcinoma, Medullary carcinoma, Signet ring cell carcinoma, Undifferentiated carcinoma, Undifferentiated carcinoma with osteoclast-like giant cells and others. Currently, studies on prognostic modeling of pancreatic malignancies have focused on PDAC, however, due to the paucity of reports on colloid carcinoma and the small sample size of studies, there has never been a consensus on its prognostic risk factors. Against this background, we propose the following specific objectives for this study: 1) to clarify the risk factors affecting the prognosis of CC; 2) to construct a clinical prognostic model; and 3) to evaluate the prognosis of patients on survival. Methods: In this study, 510 patients from the SEER database were selected and divided into a training set and a validation set, and a prognostic model was developed based on the clinical variables in the training set to predict the probability values of cancer-specific survival of CC at 1, 3, and 5 years, whereas the validation set was used to validate the variables screened in the training cohort and to calibrate the predictive model. Results: In this study, the SEER database was used to explore the risk factors affecting the prognosis of CC: age, gender, RN examined, surgery, T stage, and metastasis. Conclusion: In this study, a clinical prognostic model was constructed, and the survival prognosis of patients was effectively evaluated using this model, filling the gap in the prognostic studies of this rare tumor. It provides a powerful basis for clinicians to assess the prognosis of patients.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-09
  • 最后修改日期:2024-01-05
  • 录用日期:2024-06-14
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