江苏省2004-2022年传染病突发公共卫生事件趋势分析
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1.南京医科大学公共卫生学院;2.江苏省疾病预防控制中心

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十四五江苏省科教能力提升工程—江苏省流行病学重点学科(编号ZDXK202250); 2023年省卫健委定向委托研究重点项目—“新冠高强度流行后再感染风险和影响因素研究”(编号DX202302)


Analysis of the trend of public health emergencies of infectious diseases in Jiangsu Province from 2004 to 2022
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The 14th Five-Year Plan for Improving Science and Education Capacity in Jiangsu Province - Key Discipline of Epidemiology in Jiangsu Province (No. ZDXK202250);2023 Provincial Health Commission Targeted Commissioned Research Key Project - "Research on the Risk and Influencing Factors of Reinfection after the High-intensity Epidemic of the New Crown" (No. DX202302)

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    摘要:

    目的:分析江苏省传染病突发公共卫生事件流行特征,为防控工作开展提供科学依据。方法:采用Joinpoint回归模型分析时间维度变化趋势,采用时空重排扫描探测时空聚集性。结果:2004-2022年累计报告3641起,报告发病131880例,死亡73人,涉及法定传染病25种1868起,其中甲类76起、乙类391起、丙类1401起;涉及其他传染病8种1773起。Joinpoint回归分析显示全省事件数呈增加趋势(AAPC=16.28,P<0.05),甲类自2006年呈下降趋势(AAPC=-18.23,P<0.05),乙类、丙类、其他均呈增加趋势(AAPC>0, P<0.05),其他分为“快速增加—慢速减少—增加—减少”4个阶段。各区域事件数全局均呈增加趋势(AAPC>0, P<0.05),苏南分为“快速增加—慢速增加—快速增加—减少”4个阶段,苏中事件数单调增加,苏北分为“增加—慢速减少—快速增加—减少”4个阶段。2006年、2015年、2018年为主要转折点。时空重排扫描共探测出8个时空聚集区,按发生顺序分别分布在苏中+苏南—苏北—苏南—苏南+苏北。结论:江苏省传染病突发事件总体呈现增加趋势,苏南和苏北聚集,苏中相对分散,重点地区需做好水痘、流行性感冒、手足口病等重点传染病疫情监测和防控。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To analyze the epidemic characteristics of the infectious disease public health emergencies in Jiangsu Province, and provide scientific basis for prevention and control efforts. Methods: Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends, space-time permutation scan was employed for spatiotemporal cluster detection and exploration. Results: From 2004 to 2022, a total of 3641 emergencies were reported, with 131,880 cases and 73 deaths. There were 1868 emergencies involving 25 notifiable infectious diseases, including 76 Class A, 391 Class B, and 1401 Class C diseases. Additionally, 1773 involved other 8 non-notifiable infectious diseases. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the emergencies in Jiangsu province showed an increasing trend (AAPC = 16.28, P<0.05). Class A showed a declining trend since 2006 (AAPC = -18.23, P <0.05), while Class B, Class C, and others exhibited increasing trends (AAPC> 0, P <0.05). The trend for others was characterized by 4 stages: rapid increase, slow decrease, increase and decrease. Emergencies in 3 regions all showed increasing trend (AAPC>0, P<0.05). In southern Jiangsu, the trend was characterized by 4 stages: rapid increase, slow increase, rapid increase, and decrease. In central Jiangsu, Emergencies showed a monotonic increase. In northern Jiangsu, the trend was characterized by 4 stages: increase, slow decrease, rapid increase, and decrease. 2006, 2015, and 2018 were major turning points. 8 space-time clusters were detected, sequentially distributed in central Jiangsu + southern Jiangsu, northern Jiangsu, southern Jiangsu, and southern Jiangsu + northern Jiangsu. Conclusion: In Jiangsu Province, infectious disease emergencies showed increasing trends, with clusters in southern and northern regions and relatively scattered in central region. Priority areas need to focus on monitoring and controlling key diseases such as chickenpox, influenza, and HFMD.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-28
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-01
  • 录用日期:2024-08-01
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