弥漫性慢性鼻窦炎术后嗅觉预后模型的构建分析
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南京医科大学第一附属医院耳鼻咽喉科/过敏诊疗中心

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江苏省科教能力提升工程(JSDW202203)


Construction and analysis of predictive nomogram for olfactory outcomes in patients with diffuse chronic rhinosinusitis after surgery
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Department of Otorhinolaryngology/ Clinical Allergy Center,The First Affiliated Hospital ,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China

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Jiangsu Province Capability mprovement Project throughScience, Technology and Education (JSDW202203) of China.

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    摘要:

    目的:探讨弥漫性慢性鼻窦炎伴鼻息肉 (chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps,CRSwNP)患者的临床特征与初次鼻内镜术后嗅觉预后的关系,建立并验证弥漫性CRSwNP患者初次鼻内镜术后嗅觉改善不佳的列线图预测模型。方法:收集并分析于南京医科大学第一附属医院耳鼻咽喉科行初次鼻内镜手术治疗的67例弥漫性CRSwNP嗅觉障碍患者的临床资料,根据术后嗅觉改善情况分为嗅觉改善组和嗅觉未改善组,通过单因素和多因素logistic回归分析影响嗅觉改善的因素,据此建立弥漫性CRSwNP患者初次鼻内镜术后嗅觉预后的列线图模型并评估其预测效果。结果:研究纳入了67例弥漫性CRSwNP嗅觉障碍患者,嗅觉改善组50例,未改善组17例。多因素分析提示病程长短(β=0.527,OR=1.693,CI:1.139~2.517)、Lund-Mackay鼻窦CT评分(β=0.704,OR=2.021,CI:1.208~3.382)、外周血嗜酸性粒细胞比值(β=0.311,OR=1.365,CI:1.026~1.815)、筛窦与上颌窦CT评分的比值(β=0.954,OR=2.597,CI:1.263~5.340)是弥漫性CRSwNP初次鼻内镜术后嗅觉改善不佳的独立预测因素,据此构建的列线图模型预测弥漫性CRSwNP初次鼻内镜术后嗅觉改善的受试者工作特征(reciever operating characteristic curve,ROC)曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.770(95%CI:0.658~0.881,P<0.01),C指数为0.856(0.817~0.894),校准曲线的绝对误差平均为0.034。结论:根据病程、Lund-Mackay鼻窦CT评分、外周血嗜酸性粒细胞比值、筛窦与上颌窦CT评分的比值构建的列线图模型可以预测弥漫性CRSwNP患者初次鼻内镜术后的嗅觉改善情况,对临床工作有一定的临床指导作用。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To explore the relationship between the clinical characteristics of patients with diffuse chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) and olfactory outcomes after endoscopic surgery, and to establish and verify a nomogram predictive model for poor olfactory improvement in diffuse CRSwNP patients post-surgery. Methods: 67 diffuse CRSwNP patients with olfactory dysfunction who underwent their first endoscopic sinus surgery at the Department of Otolaryngology of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, were prospectively collected and analyzed for clinical data. Based on the postoperative improvement in olfactory dysfunction, patients were categorized into olfactory improvement group and no improvement group. Factors influencing olfactory improvement were identified through univariate and multivariate logistic analyses. A prognostic nomogram model for predicting postoperative olfactory outcomes in diffuse CRSwNP patients was then established and assessed to predict its accuracy. Results: The study included 67 diffuse CRSwNP patients with olfactory dysfunction, 50 of them showed improvement in their sense of smell, while 17 of them did not exhibit improvement. Multivariate analysis indicated that disease duration (β=0.527, OR=1.693, CI: 1.1392.517), Lund-Mackay sinus CT score (β=0.704, OR=2.021, CI: 1.2083.382), peripheral blood eosinophil percentage (β=0.311, OR=1.365, CI: 1.0261.815), and the ratio of ethmoid sinus to maxillary sinus CT scores (β=0.954, OR=2.597, CI: 1.2635.340) are independent predictive factors for diffuse CRSwNP patients with poor olfactory improvement after their first endoscopic surgery. The nomogram model for improvement in olfaction in patients with diffuse CRSwNP after initial endoscopic surgery was constructed based on these factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)is 0.770 (95% CI: 0.658~0.881, P<0.01), the C-index is 0.856 (0.817~0.894), and the average absolute error of the calibration curve is 0.034. Conclusion: We constructed a nomogram model to predict the olfactory improvement in patients with diffuse CRSwNP after their first endoscopic surgery based on disease duration, Lund-Mackay sinus CT score, peripheral blood eosinophil percentage, and the ratio of ethmoid sinus to maxillary sinus CT scores, offering a meaningful guidance for clinical practice.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-08
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-15
  • 录用日期:2024-07-04
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