MELD 3. 0评分对肝硬化失代偿期患者预后的评估价值
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安徽医科大学第三附属医院暨合肥市第一人民医院感染性疾病科

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中国肝炎防治基金会天晴肝病研究基金(TQGB20180226)


Predictive value of MELD 3.0 scores for the prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis
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1.Department of Infectious Diseases,The Third Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University,The First People'2.'3.s Hospital of Hefei

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    摘要:

    目的:比较 MELD 3. 0、MELD-Na和MELD 评分对肝硬化失代偿期患者3月和1年生存预后的评估性能。方法:回顾性收集2013年1月至2022年12月门诊及住院的肝硬化失代偿期438例患者的临床资料,分别根据随访3月及1年的生存状态分为生存组和死亡组,利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)以及曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线、净重分类改善度(NRI)、综合区分改善度(IDI)和决策曲线(DCA曲线) 比较MELD 3. 0、MELD-Na和MELD评分对3月和1年死亡的预测价值。结果:随访3月和1年时分别有15.53%、26.26%的患者死亡。MELD 3. 0、MELD-Na和MELD评分预测3月和1年死亡的AUC分别为0.859 (0.805-0.913)、0.857 (0.802-0.912)、0.856 (0.800-0.911)和0.841 (0.796-0.886)、0.832 (0.785-0.880)、0.830 (0.782-0.878),但差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。MELD 3.0评分能将18.0%的MELD-Na评分患者的评分区间上调,21.5%的MELD评分患者被重新归类为较高区间的评分。在校准曲线上,三种模型在时间点上的预测概率和实际概率方面展现出相似的趋势。在预测3月死亡率上,MELD 3. 0与MELD比较NRI为0.240 (0.009-0.401),差异有统计学意义(P=0.032);在预测1年死亡率上,MELD 3. 0相较于MELD的NRI和IDI分别为0.201 (0.079-0.401)、0.032(0.006-0.057),差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。在亚组分析中,不论在男性和女性患者,病毒性和非病毒性,Child B级和Child C级患者中,三种模型未体现出显著的统计学差异(P>0.05)。结论:与MELD或MELD-Na相比,MELD 3.0的预测性能有所提高,更有助于对肝硬化失代偿期患者精准风险分类。

    Abstract:

    Objective: Comparison of the predictive performance of MELD 3.0, MELD-Na, and MELD scores in assessing the 3-month and 1-year survival prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 438 patients diagnosed with decompensated cirrhosis who received either outpatient or inpatient care from January 2013 to December 2022. Based on their survival status at 3 months and 1 year, the patients were categorized into survival and death groups. The predictive value of MELD 3.0, MELD-Na, and MELD scores for 3-month and 1-year mortality was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: At the 3-month and 1-year follow-up points, 15.53% and 26.26% of patients had died, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting 3-month and 1-year mortality for the MELD 3.0, MELD-Na, and MELD scores were 0.859 (0.805-0.913), 0.857 (0.802-0.912), 0.856 (0.800-0.911) and 0.841 (0.796-0.886), 0.832 (0.785-0.880), 0.830 (0.782-0.878), respectively. However, the differences were not statistically significant (P >0.05). The MELD 3.0 score can increase the score range for 18.0% of patients with MELD-Na scores, and 21.5% of patients with MELD scores are reclassified into a higher score category. On the calibration curve, all three models showed similar trends between predicted and actual probabilities at both time points. In terms of predicting 3-month mortality, the NRI for MELD 3.0 compared to MELD was 0.240 (0.009-0.401), a statistically significant difference (P = 0.032). For predicting 1-year mortality, the NRI and IDI for MELD 3.0 compared to MELD were 0.201 (0.079-0.401) and 0.032 (0.006-0.057), respectively, both of which were statistically significant (P < 0.05). In subgroup analyses, including male and female patients, viral and non-viral causes, and Child-Pugh Class B and C patients, no significant statistical differences were observed among the three models (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Compared to MELD or MELD-Na, MELD 3.0 demonstrates improved predictive performance, making it more effective for precise risk stratification in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-27
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-10
  • 录用日期:2025-08-08
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