基于多种机器学习算法构建维持性血液透析患者全因死亡风险预测模型
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1.无锡市第二人民医院;2.盐城市建湖县人民医院;3.江南大学附属医院

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无锡市青年科技人才托举项目(TJXD-2024-210);无锡市护理学会科研项目(Q202303);江苏医药职业学院校本课题(20229JH35)


Development of an all-cause mortality risk prediction model utilizing multiple machine learning algorithms for maintenance hemodialysis patients in Wuxi City
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Wuxi City Young Scientific and Technological Talents Support Project(TJXD-2024-210)

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    摘 要: 目的:基于不同机器算法构建无锡市维持性血液透析(maintenance hemodialysis,MHD)患者全因死亡预测模型。方法:收集无锡市3所三级甲等医院血液透析中心2017年1月至2023年12月591名维持性血液透析患者的临床资料,通过最小绝对值选择与收缩算子(least absolute selection and shrinkage operator,LASSO)方法筛选预测因子,以7:3比例将患者随机分为训练集(n=414)和验证集(n=177),采用10种机器学习算法构建MHD患者全因死亡风险预测模型,绘制接受者操作特性曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)评估模型预测效果。采用Shapley加法解释(Shapley Additive exPlanations,SHAP)对各变量因素进行重要性排序。结果:MHD患者全因死亡发生率为42.6%(252/591),10种机器学习算法模型中,支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)模型的预测效能最优,ROC曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.928,灵敏度为0.895,精确度为0.919。SHAP图显示全因死亡发生的影响因素重要性排序分别为独自居住、带涤纶套中心静脉导管(tunneled cuffed catheter,TCC)、前白蛋白、白蛋白、查尔森合并症指数(Charlson Comorbidity Index,CCI)评分、全段甲状旁腺激素(Intact Parathyroid Hormone Total,iPTH)<300pg/mL、年龄、初中及以下学历、尿素氮肌酐比值、糖尿病肾病、大专及以上学历、性别。结论:基于SVM构建的维持性血液透析患者全因死亡预测模型具有良好的预测效果,有助于医护识别高风险患者,为临床决策及干预提供依据。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Objective:To construct prediction models for all-cause mortality in maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients in Wuxi City using diverse machine learning algorithms.Methods:Clinical data from 591 MHD patients across three tertiary hospitals in Wuxi City (January 2017 to December 2023) were collected.Predictors were selected via the least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO) method. Patients were randomly divided into training (n=414,70%) and validation (n=177,30%) sets. Ten machine learning algorithms were employed to develop risk prediction models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate predictive performance. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied to rank variable importance.Results:The all-cause mortality rate was 42.6%(252/591).Among the 10 models,the support vector machine (SVM) exhibited optimal performance,the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.928,the sensitivity was 0.895,and the accuracy was 0.919.The SHAP plot showed that the importance ranking of the influencing factors for all-cause mortality was living alone,tunneled cuffed catheter (TCC),prealbumin,albumin,Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score,iPTH<300pg/mL,age,middle school education and lower,blood urea nitrogen-to-creatinine ratio,diabetic nephropathy,college degree or higher education and gender.Conclusion:The SVM-based prediction model demonstrates robust performance in forecasting all-cause mortality among MHD patients, facilitating early identification of high-risk individuals and supporting clinical decision-making.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-08-31
  • 录用日期:2026-03-03
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