癫痫患者认知功能障碍的影响因素及模型构建 ——基于NHANES数据库分析
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山东大学齐鲁医院德州医院

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Factors and Model Construction of Cognitive Impairment in Epilepsy Patients: Analysis Based on NHANES Database
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    摘要:

    [摘 要] 目的 基于LASSO回归构建癫痫患者认知功能障碍预测模型,并分析该模型的预测效能。方法 采用横断面研究的方法,纳入NHANES数据库的癫痫患者,依据数字符号替换测试(DSST)总分将参与者分为认知功能障碍组(DSST<34)和认知功能正常组(DSST≥34)。收集人口资料、社会经济学特征、体力活动情况、疾病资料以及25-羟基维生素D [25(OH)D]、神经丝轻链蛋白(NfL)等实验室检测指标,应用Lasso回归筛选非0系数变量,构建多因素Logistic回归模型分析癫痫患者认知功能障碍的影响因素并构建列线图预测模型,应用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、Bootstrap校准曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验评价列线图模型对癫痫患者认知功能障碍的预测能力。结果 共纳入282例研究对象,癫痫患者认知功能障碍发生率为32.62%。经Lasso降维处理和Logistic回归共筛选得到血尿酸(OR=2.098)、NfL(OR=1.025)、血清25(OH)D(OR=0.989)和教育程度(OR=0.209~0.431)等癫痫患者认知功能障碍的影响因素。基于上述影响因素构建列线图预测模型,ROC曲线显示模型的曲线下面积为0.833(95% CI:0.780~0.886),特异度为0.784,敏感度为0.761。Bootstrap校准曲线显示实测概率与列线图预测概率之间具有较高的一致性;Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验结果也表明列线图模型的拟合程度较好(χ2=7.781,P=0.455)。结论 癫痫患者认知功能障碍的发生受到血尿酸、NfL、血清25(OH)D和教育程度等因素的影响,基于Lasso回归构建构建的癫痫患者认知功能障碍预测模型显示出良好的预测效能,上述影响因素的识别为临床评估和干预提供了重要依据,有助于提高癫痫患者的预后管理效果。

    Abstract:

    Objective A predictive model for cognitive dysfunction in epileptic patients was constructed using LASSO regression, and the predictive efficacy of this model was analyzed. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted, including epileptic patients from the NHANES database. Participants were categorized into cognitive dysfunction (DSST<34) and normal cognitive function groups (DSST≥34) based on the total score of the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST). Data on demographics, socioeconomic characteristics, physical activity, medical history, as well as laboratory indicators such as 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and neurofilament light chain (NfL) were collected. Lasso regression was used to select non-zero coefficient variables, and a multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to analyze factors affecting cognitive dysfunction in epileptic patients and to develop a nomogram prediction model. The model’s predictive ability was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Bootstrap calibration curves, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests. Results A total of 282 subjects were included, with a cognitive dysfunction incidence of 32.62% among the epileptic patients. Factors identified through Lasso reduction and logistic regression included blood uric acid (OR=2.098), NfL (OR=1.025), serum 25(OH)D (OR=0.989), and education level (OR=0.209~0.431). The nomogram prediction model based on these factors showed an area under the ROC curve of 0.833 (95% CI: 0.780–0.886), with a specificity of 0.784 and sensitivity of 0.761. The Bootstrap calibration curve demonstrated a high consistency between the observed probabilities and those predicted by the nomogram; the Hosmer-Lemeshow test also indicated good model fit (χ2=7.781, P=0.455). Conclusion Cognitive dysfunction in epileptic patients was influenced by factors including blood uric acid, NfL, serum 25(OH)D, and education level. The predictive model constructed based on Lasso regression exhibited good predictive efficacy. Identifying these factors provides important guidance for clinical assessment and intervention, contributing to improved management of prognosis in epileptic patients.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-03
  • 录用日期:2026-03-03
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