2004-2022年江苏省与全国4种肝炎发病趋势的分析和比较
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1.南京医科大学康达学院,连云港市第一人民医院信息部;2.南京医科大学医工院;3.南京医科大学康达学院

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Analysis and Comparison of the Incidence Trends of Four Types of Hepatitis between Jiangsu Province and the National Level from 2004 to 2022
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    摘要:

    目的 分析和比较江苏省与全国4种肝炎发病趋势的变化,揭示江苏省肝炎发病的区域特征和现状,为江苏省和全国的肝炎防控工作提供参考依据。方法 采用描述性流行病学方法、年均变化百分比和时空扫描统计方法,对2004-2022年江苏省和全国4种肝炎(甲肝、乙肝、丙肝和戊肝)的发病数据进行分析和比较。结果 2004-2022年江苏省和全国4种肝炎的平均发病率(1/10万)分别为甲肝1.55和2.72、乙肝18.70和75.24、丙肝3.50和11.85、戊肝3.80和1.77。近年来发病率的变化趋势为:全国甲肝呈平稳趋势(2012-2022年,P > 0.10),乙肝呈平稳趋势(2014-2022年,P > 0.5),丙肝呈下降趋势(2019-2022年,P < 0.001),戊肝呈平稳趋势(2013-2022年,P > 0.5);江苏省甲肝呈平稳趋势(2013-2022年,P > 0.20),乙肝呈上升趋势(2012-2022年,P <0.05),丙肝呈上升趋势(2004-2022年,P < 0.001),戊肝呈下降趋势(2011-2022年,P < 0.001)。时空扫描统计分析显示,全国3个甲肝低发病聚集区均包含江苏省,3个乙肝低发病聚集区有1个包含江苏省, 4个丙肝低发病聚集区有2个包含江苏省,3个戊肝高发病聚集区均包含江苏省。结论 2004-2022年,全国乙肝平均发病率最高,其它依次为丙肝、甲肝和戊肝;江苏省乙肝平均发病率最高,其它依次为戊肝、丙肝和甲肝,甲肝、乙肝和丙肝平均发病率低于全国,戊肝平均发病率高于全国。全国肝炎防控策略的重点要降低乙肝发病率,改变甲肝、戊肝发病率的平稳趋势为下降趋势;江苏省肝炎防控策略的重点为降低乙肝和戊肝发病率,改变丙肝发病率的上升趋势和甲肝发病率的平稳趋势为下降趋势。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To analyze and compare the changes in the incidence trends of four types of hepatitis in Jiangsu Province and the national level, reveal the regional characteristics and current status of hepatitis incidence in Jiangsu Province, and provide reference for hepatitis prevention and control work both in Jiangsu Province and nationwide. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods, annual average change percentage and time-space scanning statistical methods were used to analyze and compare the incidence data of four types of hepatitis (hepatitis A, B, C and E) in Jiangsu Province and the national level from 2004 to 2022. Results: The average incidence rates (1/ 100,000) of four types of hepatitis in Jiangsu Province and nationwide from 2004 to 2022 were 1.55 and 2.72 for hepatitis A, 18.70 and 75.24 for hepatitis B, 3.50 and 11.85 for hepatitis C, and 3.80 and 1.77 for hepatitis E, respectively. The change trend of incidence rate in recent years is as follows: in the nationwide, hepatitis A remained a stable trend (2012 – 2022,P>0.10), hepatitis B remained a steady trend (2014-2022,P>0.5), hepatitis C displayed a downward trend (2019-2022, P<0.001), and hepatitis E remained a stable trend (2013-2022, P>0.5); In Jiangsu Province, hepatitis A remained a stable trend (2013-2022, P>0.20), hepatitis B showed an upward trend (2012-2022, P <0.05), hepatitis C showed an upward trend (2004-2022, P<0.001), and hepatitis E demonstrated a declining trend (2011-2022, P<0.001); the statistical analysis of time-space scanning shows that three low-incidence clusters for Hepatitis A in nationwide all included Jiangsu Province, one of three low-incidence clusters for Hepatitis B included Jiangsu Province, two of four low-incidence clusters for Hepatitis C included Jiangsu Province, and all three high-incidence clusters for Hepatitis E included Jiangsu Province. Conclusion: From 2004 to 2022, in the nationwide, the highest average incidence rate of hepatitis was for Hepatitis B, followed by Hepatitis C, Hepatitis A, and Hepatitis E. In Jiangsu Province, Hepatitis B also had the highest average incidence rate, followed by Hepatitis E, Hepatitis C, and Hepatitis A, the average incidence rates of Hepatitis A, B, and C in Jiangsu Province were lower than the national average, while that of Hepatitis E was higher than the national average. The national hepatitis prevention and control strategy should prioritize reducing the incidence of Hepatitis B and shifting the stable trends of Hepatitis A and Hepatitis E to downward trends. In Jiangsu Province, the strategy should focus on lowering the incidence of Hepatitis B and Hepatitis E, reversing the upward trends of Hepatitis C, and transforming the stable trend of Hepatitis A into a downward trend.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-21
  • 最后修改日期:2025-09-15
  • 录用日期:2025-12-31
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