老年糖尿病合并认知衰弱患者发生营养不良风险预测模型的构建
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南京医科大学第一附属医院

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江苏省卫生健康委员会科研课题(BJ17015);中国老年学和老年医学学会科研课题(CAGG2025104)


Construction of a Risk Prediction Model for Malnutrition in Elderly Diabetic Patients with Cognitive Frailty
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The First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University

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Scientific Research Project of Jiangsu Provincial Health Commission (BJ17015);Scientific Research Project of China Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics (CAGG2025104)

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    摘要:

    目的:旨在深入剖析影响老年糖尿病合并认知衰弱(cognitive frailty,CF)患者发生营养不良风险的关键因素,并据此构建一套精确的风险预测列线图模型。方法:采用横断面研究设计,纳入2023年1月至2024年12月南京医科大学第一附属医院老年内分泌科收治的124例老年糖尿病合并CF患者。研究工具包括:一般资料问卷、Fried生理衰弱量、蒙特利尔认知评估量表、老年抑郁评估量表(geriat-ric de-pression scale ,GDS)、焦虑自评量表、微型营养评估量表,收集患者基本信息,评估患者衰弱、认知功能、心理状态及营养不良风险。采用多因素Logis-tic回归分析营养不良风险的影响因素,并用R语言“rms”包构建预测模型,绘制列线图。模型验证包括受试者工作特征曲线分析、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验和一致性指数评估,以及校准曲线绘制。结果:124例老年糖尿病合并CF患者发生营养不良风险率为67.7%(84/124),将其纳入营养不良组,其余纳入营养良好组。两组在年龄、婚姻状况、体重指数(body mass index ,BMI)、GDS评估、白蛋白、前白蛋白、转铁蛋白及血红蛋白水平上存在显著差异(P<0.05)。年龄、婚姻状况、BMI、GDS评估、白蛋白及前白蛋白水平是老年糖尿病合并CF患者发生营养不良风险的独立预测因素(P<0.05)。基于影响因素构建的列线图模型一致性指数为0.781〔95%CI(0.695~0.867)〕,Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示该列线图模型的拟合效果良好,χ2统计量为5.22,对应的显著性水平P值达到0.73。决策曲线分析表明,当阈值概率为0~0.67时,该列线图模型预测老年糖尿病合并CF患者发生营养不良风险的净获益率>0。结论:老年糖尿病合并CF患者中,年龄、婚姻状况、BMI、GDS评估、白蛋白和前白蛋白水平是影响营养不良风险的关键因素。建立的风险预测模型对评估这类患者发生营养不良风险具有中等的预测效能和良好的临床应用价值。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To conduct an in-depth analysis of the key factors influencing the risk of malnutrition in elderly diabetic patients with cognitive frailty (CF) and to construct an accurate risk prediction nomogram model based on these factors. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was adopted, enrolling 124 elderly diabetic patients with CF admitted to the Department of Geriatric Endocrinology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2023 and December 2024. The study instruments included: a general information questionnaire, the Fried Phenotype Frailty scale, the Montreal Cognitive Assessment scale, the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), the Self-Rating Anxiety Scale, and the Mini Nutritional Assessment scale. Basic patient information was collected, and assessments were made for frailty, cognitive function, psychological status, and malnutrition risk. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify influencing factors for malnutrition risk, and the R language "rms" package was used to construct the prediction model and draw the nomogram. Model validation included Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, assessment of the Concordance Index (C-index), and the plotting of a calibration curve. Results: The malnutrition risk rate among the 124 elderly diabetic patients with CF was 67.7% (84/124). These 84 patients were assigned to the malnutrition risk group, and the remaining 40 were assigned to the well-nourished group. Significant differences (P < 0.05) were found between the two groups in terms of age, marital status, body mass index (BMI), GDS score, albumin, prealbumin, transferrin, and hemoglobin levels. Age, marital status, BMI, GDS score, albumin, and prealbumin levels were identified as independent predictors of malnutrition risk in elderly diabetic patients with CF (P < 0.05). The nomogram model constructed based on these influencing factors had a C-index of 0.781 [95% CI (0.695-0.867)]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good fit for the nomogram model (χ2 statistic = 5.22, corresponding P-value = 0.73). Decision curve analysis showed that when the threshold probability ranged from 0 to 0.67, the net benefit rate of using this nomogram model to predict malnutrition risk in elderly diabetic patients with CF was > 0. Conclusion: In elderly diabetic patients with CF, age, marital status, BMI, GDS score, albumin, and prealbumin levels are key factors influencing the risk of malnutrition. The established risk prediction model demonstrates moderate predictive performance and good clinical application value for assessing the risk of malnutrition in this patient population.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-13
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-09
  • 录用日期:2025-11-27
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