基于多模态数据的甲状腺髓样癌中央区淋巴结转移术前预测模型的构建与分析
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南京医科大学第一附属医院

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江苏省医学重点学科项目 ZDXK202239


Construction and Analysis of a Preoperative Prediction Model for Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma Based on Multimodal Data
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Jiangsu Provincial Medical Key Discipline Project (Grant No. ZDXK202239)

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    摘要:

    目的:基于多模态数据构建甲状腺髓样癌(Medullary Thyroid Carcinoma,MTC)中央区淋巴结转移(Central Lymph Node Metastasis,CLNM)的预测模型,并分析其临床意义。方法 :回顾性分析2017年1月~2025年5月南京医科大学第一附属医院收治的104例MTC患者的临床病理资料、术前影像学特征及血液学指标。通过显著性差异分析、单因素及多因素Logistic回归筛选CLNM的独立危险因素,构建预测模型并绘制列线图,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线和决策分析曲线评估模型的区分度、校准度和临床适用性,使用Bootstrap法进行内部验证。结果 :根据病理结果将104例MTC患者分成CLNM转移组与非转移组,其中转移组55例,非转移组49例。与非转移组患者相比,转移组患者在性别(P=0.001)、超声形态是否规则(P<0.001)、超声边缘是否光整(P<0.001)、血清癌胚抗原(carcinoembryonic antigen,CEA)水平(P=0.006)、血清降钙素(calcitonin,CT)水平(P<0.001)之间存在显著差异。多因素logistic回归分析显示,患者的性别(OR=6.63, 95%CI:2.04-21.57, P=0.002)、超声边缘是否光整(OR=10.49, 95%CI:2.79-39.37, P<0.001)以及血清CT(OR=1.25, 95%CI:1.10-1.42, P<0.001)是CLNM的独立危险因素。联合三者建立的列线图模型可良好地识别患者发生中央区淋巴结转移,ROC曲线下面积AUC=0.873, 95%CI:0.808-0.939,校准曲线和决策曲线分析(Decision Curve Analysis,DCA)均表明该模型具有良好的性能及临床适用性。使用Bootstrap法进行内部验证也显示该模型具有良好的稳定性和可靠性(AUC=0.874,95%CI:0.865-0.879)。结论:结合患者的性别、超声边缘是否光整以及血清CT水平的多模态数据模型能有效预测MTC患者CLNM风险,为临床决策提供依据。

    Abstract:

    【Abstract】Objective: To develop and validate a multimodal data-based predictive model for central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) and evaluate its clinical significance. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinical-pathological data, preoperative imaging features, and hematological parameters of 104 MTC patients treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2017 and May 2025. Patients were classified into CLNM-positive (n=55) and CLNM-negative (n= 49) groups based on pathological findings. Significant predictors of CLNM were identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A nomogram was constructed, and model performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (discrimination), calibration curve (calibration), and decision curve analysis (DCA; clinical utility). Internal validation was performed via bootstrap resampling. Results: Compared to the CLNM-negative group, CLNM-positive patients showed significant differences in gender (P = 0.001), US tumor morphology (regularity; P < 0.001), US tumor margin (circumscribed status; P < 0.001), serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels (P = 0.006), and serum calcitonin (CT) levels (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis identified male gender (OR = 6.63, 95% CI: 2.04–21.57; P = 0.002), non-circumscribed US margins (OR = 10.49, 95% CI: 2.79–39.37; P < 0.001), and elevated serum CT (OR = 1.25 per 1-unit increase, 95% CI: 1.10–1.42; P < 0.001) as independent risk factors for CLNM. The nomogram integrating these factors demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.873, 95% CI: 0.808–0.939), with good calibration and clinical utility on DCA. Bootstrap validation confirmed model stability (AUC = 0.874, 95% CI: 0.865–0.879). Conclusion: A multimodal model incorporating gender, US tumor margin status, and serum CT levels effectively predicts CLNM risk in MTC patients, providing a valuable tool for clinical decision-making.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-15
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-14
  • 录用日期:2025-12-26
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