基于多维度临床指标的体外心肺复苏患者30天死亡率预测模型构建
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南京医科大学附属第一医院

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江苏省人民医院临床诊疗技术创新“揭榜挂帅”项目(JBGS202412);江苏省研究型医院学会重大疾病炎症风暴防治专项科研基金项目(SYHKJ-XF-2025-08)


Development of a Predictive Model for 30-Day Mortality in Patients Undergoing Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Based on Multidimensional Clinical Indicators
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The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University

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    摘要:

    基于多维度临床指标探讨接受体外心肺复苏(Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation, ECPR)且上机后存活≥72 h的患者30天死亡率独立危险因素并构建预测模型。方法:本研究为单中心回顾性队列研究。连续纳入2022年1月至2024年12月期间江苏省人民医院急诊医学科收治的ECPR成人患者。根据体外膜肺氧合(Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, ECMO)上机后30天生存情况分为生存组(46例)和死亡组(72例)。收集并比较两组患者基线资料、治疗情况及ECMO上机后24小时/72小时的最大血管活性-正性肌力药物评分(Maximum vasoactive-inotropic score within 24 hours/72?hours after cannulation, VISmax24 h/VISmax72 h)。采用多因素logistic回归模型构建预测模型。采用C指数(Concordance index, 即受试者工作特征曲线下面积)、校准曲线及决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis, DCA)评估模型的区分度、校准度及临床实用性,并通过Bootstrap法进行内部验证。结果:共118例ECPR患者纳入研究,30天死亡率为61.0%(72/118)。多因素回归显示,急性生理学与慢性健康状况评估 Ⅱ(Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ, APACHE Ⅱ)评分(OR=1.260, 95%CI: 1.064-1.492,P =0.007)、冠状动脉性心脏病(Coronary heart disease, CHD)(OR=7.464, 95%CI: 1.284-43.386,P =0.025)、连续性肾脏替代治疗(Continuous renal replacement therapy, CRRT)(OR=4.146, 95%CI: 1.400-12.275,P =0.010)及VISmax72 h(OR=1.083, 95%CI: 1.018-1.153,P =0.012)是独立危险因素;而上机后第1-3天肌钙蛋白T变化值(Delta cardiac troponin-T between day 1 and day 3 after cannulation, ?cTnT(day1-3) )(OR=0.050, P =0.048),则为独立保护因素。基于上述5项指标构建的预后模型曲线下面积(Area under the curve, AUC)为0.836(95%CI: 0.765-0.907),校准曲线显示模型预测概率与实际观测概率高度吻合,决策曲线分析提示模型具有良好的临床净获益。Bootstrap内部验证后的C指数为0.891。结论:联合APACHE Ⅱ评分、CHD、CRRT、cTnT下降比值及VISmax72 h构建ECMO上机后存活≥72 h的成人ECPR患者30天死亡风险预测模型具有良好预测效能。该模型整合了基础疾病严重程度、器官功能损伤及血流动力学动态恢复三个维度,为临床早期风险分层、治疗策略调整及医患沟通提供了量化工具。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To identify independent risk factors for 30-day mortality and construct a prognostic prediction model based on multidimensional clinical indicators in adult patients receiving extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) who survived at least 72?hours after extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) cannulation.Methods: This was a single-center retrospective cohort study. Adult ECPR patients admitted to the Department of Emergency Medicine of Jiangsu Provincial People’s Hospital between January 2022 and December 2024 were consecutively enrolled. Patients were divided into the survival group (46 cases) and the death group (72 cases) according to their 30-day survival status after ECMO initiation. Baseline characteristics, treatment-related data, and maximum vasoactive-inotropic score within 24?hours and 72?hours after cannulation (VISmax24 h, VISmax72 h) were collected and compared between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to establish the prediction model. The C-index (equivalent to the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve, AUC), calibration curve and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the model, and internal validation was conducted via the Bootstrap method with 1?000 resamples.Results: A total of 118 ECPR patients were included, and the 30-day mortality rate was 61.0% (72/118). Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score (OR=1.260, 95%CI: 1.064-1.492,P =0.007), coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR=7.464, 95%CI: 1.284-43.386,P =0.025), continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) (OR=4.146, 95%CI: 1.400-12.275,P =0.010), and VISmax72 h (OR=1.083, 95%CI: 1.018-1.153,P =0.012) were independent risk factors, whereas delta cardiac troponin-T between day?1 and day?3 after cannulation (ΔcTnT [day1-3]) (OR=0.050, P =0.048) served as an independent protective factor. The prediction model incorporating the above five variables yielded an AUC of 0.836 (95%CI:0.765-0.907). The calibration curve showed high consistency between model-predicted probabilities and actual observed probabilities. Decision-curve analysis indicated favorable clinical net benefit of the model. The C-index after Bootstrap internal validation reached 0.891.Conclusion: The prediction model integrating APACHE Ⅱ score, CHD, CRRT, ΔcTnT (day1-3) and VISmax72 h exhibits satisfactory predictive performance for 30-day mortality risk in adult ECPR patients surviving ≥72?hours after ECMO cannulation. Integrating three dimensions including baseline disease severity, organ injury and dynamic hemodynamic recovery, this model provides a quantitative tool for early clinical risk stratification, therapeutic adjustment and doctor-patient communication.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-24
  • 最后修改日期:2026-09-16
  • 录用日期:2026-09-29
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