2009~2011年江苏省传染病自动预警系统运行效果分析
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江苏省疾病预防控制中心科教兴业工程重点人才项目(JKRC2011010)


Analysis on automated-alert and response system of infectious diseases in Jiangsu province from 2009 to 2011
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    目的:了解2009~2011年江苏省传染病自动预警系统的运行情况,为进一步完善传染病预警工作模式提供依据-方法:对2009~2011年江苏省自动预警系统生成的预警信号-预警病种-响应时间-核实方式等进行描述性分析-结果:3年内,自动预警系统共发出预警信号31 649条,预警信号响应率为99.93%,阳性率为0.6%-预警信号数与法定传染病发病总数存在正相关关系,r = 0.94(P < 0.01)-预警信号季节分布呈现春夏季和秋季开学双峰型-2009~2011年预警信号总响应率分别为99.79%-99.99%-100.00%,呈逐年上升趋势-单病例预警中,核实方式以综合分析为主,占54.02%,平均响应时间为0.23~0.33 h;时间模型预警中,核实方式以监测数据分析为主,占47.57%,平均响应时间为0.49~0.76 h-讨论:传染病自动预警系统运行稳定-响应率高,对及时发现重点病例和早期探测传染病暴发具有重要作用-但预警参数设定和预警数据来源还需进一步优化-

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    Objective:To analyze the results of application on automated-alert and response system of infectious diseases in Jiangsu province from 2009 to 2011,and to provide scientific evidence for the improvement of the system. Methods:Descriptive study is applied to analysis the outcome of signal,classification of diseases,response time to signal,and manner of signal verification,using the data of the infectious diseases automated-alert and response system from 2009 to 2011. Results:A total of 31 649 early-warning signals were detected from 2009 to 2011,with signal response rate of 99.93% and positive rate of 0.6%. There was a positive correlation between the number of signals and the notifiable disease in municipalities. The season distribution of signals had two peaks at spring-summer and fall-semester. The response rates were on rise year by year,with 99.79%,99.99% and 100.00% respectively. Comprehensive analysis,accounting for 54.02% in all methods of signal verification,was the primary method to verify the early-warning of a single case,and the median response time was 0.23 h to 0.33 h. Surveillance data analysis was accounting for 47.57%,for early-warning signal by the time model method,and the median response time was 0.49 h to 0.76 h. Conclusion:The infectious diseases automated-alert and response system was stable and effective. This system had an important role in the early discover of priority case and prediction of disease pandemics. However,to optimize the early warning system,better parameters of early-warning and source of data should be need.

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梁 祁,吴 莹,刘文东,李 媛,戴启刚,艾 静,彭志行,陈 峰,胡建利.2009~2011年江苏省传染病自动预警系统运行效果分析[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2012,(11):1607-1611

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  • 收稿日期:2012-06-21
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