基于支持向量机的急性百草枯中毒预后模型的建立与评价
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泉州市自然科学基金(Z【2014】0280)


Establishment and evaluation of prognostic model for patients with acute paraquat poisoning based on support vector machine
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    摘要:

    目的:比较支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)和传统的Logistic回归构建的急性百草枯(paraquat,PQ)中毒早期预后判别模型的预测性能。方法:收集急性PQ中毒患者152例,随访观察2个月的临床转归情况。应用随机数字表法以3∶2的比例分为两组,一组作为训练样本用于筛选变量和建立预测模型,计91例;另一组作为验证样本,用于评价模型预测效果,计61例。建模方法采用SVM和常规统计方法中的Logistic回归。结果:通过对PQ中毒患者的预测判别验证,线性核、多项式核、Sigmoid核及径向基函数核SVM模型的预测准确率分别为77.92%、74.03%、75.32%、79.22%。对所有预测模型性能对比显示,SVM模型预测性能高于Logistic回归模型,其中径向基核函数(RBF)-SVM模型效果最好,灵敏度为87.5%,特异度为70.6%。结论:采用SVM模型能更好地整合各种影响PQ中毒患者早期预后的信息,所建立的模型具有更好的预测能力,为预测PQ中毒患者的预后提供了一种新方法。

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    Objective:To compare the predictive performance of constructing the early prognostic model of acute paraquat(PQ)poisoning between support vector machine(SVM)and logistic regression. Methods:A total of 152 patients with acute PQ poisoning were collected and the clinical results were observed for 2 months. The patients were divided into two groups with a 3∶2 ratio by the random numerical table method. One group with a total of 91 cases was used as a training sample for selecting variables and establishing predictive models. Another group with a total of 61 cases was used as a validation sample to evaluate the predictive effect of the model. SVM and conventional logistic regression was used as the modeling method. Results:The prediction accuracy of the kernel,polynomial,sigmoid kernel and radial basis function nuclear SVM model was 77.92%,74.03%,75.32% and 79.22% respectively,when being tested by the validation group. The results of performance comparison showed that SVM models performed better than logistic regression model;RBF-SVM was the best among all the models with a sensitivity of 87.5% and a specificity of 70.6%. Conclusion:SVM model could preferably integrate all kinds of prognostic information of PQ poisoning patients,and the established model had better prediction ability,providing a new method for predicting the prognosis of patients with PQ poisoning.

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杨志燕,黄天宝,王树山,林华日,周君艺.基于支持向量机的急性百草枯中毒预后模型的建立与评价[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2018,(10):1467-1471

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  • 收稿日期:2017-09-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-11-08
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