MELD3.0评分对肝硬化失代偿期患者预后的评估价值
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安徽医科大学第三附属医院(合肥市第一人民医院)感染性疾病科,安徽 合肥 230001

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R575.2

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中国肝炎防治基金会天晴肝病研究基金(TQGB20180226)


Predictive value of MELD 3.0 scores for the prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis
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Department of Infectious Diseases,the Third Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University(the First People’sHospital of Hefei),Hefei 230001 ,China

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    摘要:

    目的:比较 MELD 3. 0、MELD-Na和MELD 评分对肝硬化失代偿期患者3个月和1年生存预后的预测效能。方法: 回顾性收集2013年1月—2022年12月合肥市第一人民医院门诊及住院的肝硬化失代偿期438例患者的临床资料,分别根据随访3个月及1年的生存状态分为生存组和死亡组,利用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线)以及曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)、校准曲线、净重分类改善度(net reclassification improvement,NRI)、综合区分改善度(inte- grated discrimination improvement,IDI)和决策曲线(decision curve analysis,DCA)比较MELD 3. 0、MELD-Na和MELD评分的预测价值。结果:438例患者随访3个月和1年的病死率分别为15.53%和26.26%。MELD 3. 0、MELD-Na和MELD评分预测3个月病死率的AUC 值分别为0.859(0.805~0.913)、0.857(0.802~0.912)和0.856(0.800~0.911);预测1年病死率的AUC 值分别为 0.841(0.796~0.886)、0.832(0.785~0.880)和0.830(0.782~0.878),各组间差异均无统计学意义(P均>0.05)。3种评分在所有患者的分布中,MELD 3.0评分能将18.0%的MELD-Na评分患者的评分区间上调,21.5%的MELD评分患者被重新归类为较高区间的评分。在校准曲线上,3 种评分在时间点上的预测概率和实际概率方面展现出相似的趋势。在预测 3 个月病死率上, MELD 3. 0较MELD的NRI为0.240(0.009~0.401,P=0.032);在预测1年病死率方面,MELD 3.0相比MELD的NRI和IDI分别为 0.201(0.079~0.401)、0.032(0.006~0.057),差异均有统计学意义(P < 0.05)。亚组分析显示3种评分在不同性别、病因及Child 分级患者中差异均无统计学意义(P > 0.05)。结论:MELD 3.0评分在NRI、IDI方面显著优于传统模型,展现出更好的风险分层能力,为肝硬化失代偿患者的临床预后评估提供更可靠的决策依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective:Comparison of the predictive performance of MELD 3.0,MELD -Na,and MELD scores in assessing the 3- month and 1 - year survival prognosis of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Methods:We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 438 patients diagnosed with decompensated cirrhosis who received either outpatient or inpatient care from January 2013 to December 2022. Based on their survival status at 3 months and 1 year,the patients were categorized into survival and death groups. The predictive value of MELD 3.0,MELD-Na,and MELD scores for 3-month and 1-year mortality was compared using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,the area under the curve(AUC),calibration curves,net reclassification improvement(NRI), integrated discrimination improvement(IDI),and decision curve analysis(DCA). Results:At the 3-month and 1-year follow-up points, 15.53% and 26.26% of patients had died,respectively. The area under the curve(AUC)for predicting 3-month and 1-year mortality for the MELD 3.0,MELD-Na,and MELD scores were 0.859(0.805-0.913),0.857(0.802-0.912),0.856(0.800-0.911)and 0.841(0.796- 0.886),0.832(0.785-0.880),0.830(0.782-0.878),respectively. However,the differences were not statistically significant(P > 0.05). In the distribution analysis across all patients,MELD 3.0 score can increase the score range for 18.0% of patients with MELD -Na scores,and 21.5% of patients with MELD scores are reclassified into a higher score category. On the calibration curve,all three models showed similar trends between predicted and actual probabilities at both time points. In terms of predicting 3-month mortality,the NRI for MELD 3.0 compared to MELD was 0.240(0.009-0.401),with a statistically significant difference(P=0.032). For predicting 1-year mortality,the NRI and IDI for MELD 3.0 compared to MELD were 0.201(0.079-0.401)and 0.032(0.006-0.057),respectively,both of which were statistically significant(P < 0.05). In subgroup analyses,including male and female patients,viral and non-viral causes, and Child - Pugh class B and C patients,no significant statistical differences were observed among the three models(P > 0.05). Conclusion:MELD 3.0 showed significant improvement over conventional models in terms of NRI and IDI,demonstrating enhanced risk stratification capacity for clinical decision-making in decompensated cirrhosis.

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徐鹤翔,王鹏,郑袁如,郑吉顺. MELD3.0评分对肝硬化失代偿期患者预后的评估价值[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2025,45(8):1148-1158

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-13
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