基于列线图的VA⁃ECMO患者临床死亡风险预测模型构建
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南京医科大学第一附属医院急诊与危重症医学科,江苏 南京 210029

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R542.22

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国家自然科学基金(82272244)


A nomogram⁃based prediction model for clinical mortality risk in VAECMO patients
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Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine,the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 210029 ,China

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    摘要:

    目的:探讨接受静脉-动脉体外膜肺氧合(venous-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation,VA-ECMO)治疗的急性心肌梗死(acute myocardial infarction,AMI)患者院内死亡的危险因素,并构建列线图预测模型。方法:回顾性纳入2021年 5月—2025年6月收治的162例接受 VA-ECMO 治疗的AMI患者临床资料。以上机时间为随访起点,随访至出院或死亡(以先发生者为准),以院内全因死亡为终点事件。采用Cox比例风险回归模型分析各因素与院内死亡风险的相关性。采用最小绝对收缩与选择算子(least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,LASSO)回归筛选预测变量,并构建多因素Cox回归模型。基于最终模型构建列线图,用于预测患者院内生存概率。通过一致性指数(C-index)评价模型整体区分度,并以28 d作为时间依赖受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线分析的固定时间节点,评估模型在短期时间窗口内的预测能力, 采用校准曲线评估模型校准度,并通过临床决策曲线分析(decision curve analysis,DCA)评价模型的临床实用价值。结果:多因素分析显示,心肌肌钙蛋白T、可溶性生长刺激表达基因 2 蛋白、血红蛋白浓度、凝血酶原时间、血钠浓度和丙氨酸氨基转移酶与院内死亡风险显著相关,白细胞计数与白蛋白在模型中呈边缘统计学意义。基于上述8项变量构建的列线图模型具有较高的预测准确性和良好的校准能力,显示出较好的临床应用价值。结论:本研究构建并验证了一个用于评估接受 VA-ECMO 治疗的AMI患者院内死亡风险的列线图预测模型,为VA-ECMO 患者死亡风险的个体化评估提供了一种简便、可靠的工具,对临床决策和治疗策略优化具有重要指导意义。

    Abstract:

    Objective:To identify risk factors associated with in-hospital death and to develop a nomogram-based predictive model for in-hospital mortality in acute myocardial infarction(AMI)patients treated with venous-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). Methods:A total of 162 consecutive patients with AMI who received VA-ECMO support between May 2021 and June 2025 were retrospectively enrolled. The time of ECMO initiation was defined as the start of follow-up,and patients were followed until hospital discharge or death,whichever occurred first. In - hospital all - cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to evaluate the associations between candidate variables and the risk of in - hospital mortality. Variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression,and a multivariable Cox regression model was subsequently constructed. Based on the final model,a nomogram was developed to predict in- hospital survival probability. Model discrimination was assessed using the concordance index(C -index). The 28-day time point was used as a fixed landmark for time-dependent receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis to evaluate short-term predictive performance. Model calibration was evaluated using calibration curves,and clinical utility was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). Results:Multivariable analysis demonstrated that cardiac troponin T,soluble suppression of tumorigenicity - 2(sST2), hemoglobin concentration,prothrombin time,serum sodium level,and alanine aminotransferase were significantly associated with inhospital mortality. White blood cell count and albumin showed borderline statistical significance in the model. The nomogram incorporating these eight variables exhibited good discriminative performance and satisfactory calibration,indicating favorable clinical applicability. Conclusion:This study identified key clinical variables associated with in-hospital mortality and successfully developed and validated a nomogram - based prediction model. The proposed model provides a simple and reliable tool for individualized risk stratification and may assist clinicians in optimizing decision-making and management strategies for this high-risk population.

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杨洋,朱轶,吴昊.基于列线图的VA⁃ECMO患者临床死亡风险预测模型构建[J].南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2026,46(3):425-434

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-21
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-23
  • 录用日期:2026-02-24
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-12
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