文章摘要
汤璞石,李庆国,刘艳虎.气候学因素与急性主动脉夹层发生关系的探究[J].南京医科大学学报,2019,(11):1578~1583
气候学因素与急性主动脉夹层发生关系的探究
Study on the relationship between climatological factors and acute aortic dissection
投稿时间:2019-05-05  
DOI:10.7655/NYDXBNS20191106
中文关键词: 急性主动脉夹层  气候,气温  平均气压  2 min平均风速
英文关键词: acute aortic dissection  climate  temperature  mean air pressure  2 minute mean wind speed
基金项目:江苏省科技厅省级重点研发专项(BE2016798)
作者单位
汤璞石 南京医科大学第二附属医院心血管中心江苏 南京 210011 
李庆国 南京医科大学第二附属医院心血管中心江苏 南京 210011 
刘艳虎 南京医科大学第二附属医院心血管中心江苏 南京 210011 
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中文摘要:
      目的:探究气候变化与急性主动脉夹层(acute aortic dissection,AAD)发生之间的关系,为AAD的预防控制提供科学依据。方法:回顾性收集2012年1月—2017年12月南京地区三家医院收治的822例AAD患者的临床资料,比较不同季节、月份之间发病例数的差异;结合同期南京市每月气象数据,通过Spearman等级相关分析气象因素与发病例数的相关性及各气象因子之间的相关程度,利用拟合服从Poisson分布的广义可加模型探索气候变化与AAD发病的关系,用时间序列预测模型评估与实际发病数的关系。结果:AAD及其A和B分型在12月和1月占比较高,总的AAD和B型最低值发生在8月,A型最低值在6月。广义可加模型显示随着平均气压升高,AAD发病增加(RR=1.04,95%CI=1.03~1.05,P < 0.000 1)。而平均2 min风速增加,AAD的发生越少(RR=0.66,95%CI=0.46~0.94,P=0.03)。结论:AAD发生与气候学部分指标之间存在一定的关联性,平均气压升高,AAD发生增加,平均2 min风速增加,AAD发生减少。
英文摘要:
      Objective:To explore the relationship between climate change and the incidence of acute aortic dissection(AAD),so as to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of AAD. Methods:The clinical data of 822 patients with AAD admitted to three hospitals in Nanjing during January,2012–December,2017 were retrospectively collected and analyzed. The incidences of AAD in different seasons and months were compared. The monthly meteorological data of Nanjing were collected and correlated to the incidence of AAD using Spearman rank correlation program,and the correlation between meteorological factors was also analyzed. By using the generalized additive model of the Poisson distribution,the relationship between climate change and the incidence of AAD was explored. The relations between the results derived from time series prediction model and the actual number of AAD cases were assessed. Results:The proportion of AAD and its A and B types was higher in December and January. The lowest incidence of total AAD and type B occurred in August,while the lowest of AAD type A was in June. The generalized additive model showed an increase in the incidence of AAD as the mean air pressure increased(RR=1.04,95%CI=1.03~1.05,P < 0.000 1). Along with the average 2 minute wind speed increased,the incidence of AAD became lower(RR=0.66,95%CI=0.46~0.94,P=0.03). Conclusion:There is a certain correlation between the incidence of AAD and some specific climatological indicators. When the average air pressure increases,the AAD incidence increases; when the average 2 minute wind speed increases,the AAD incidence decreases.
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