文章摘要
时影影,沈文琪,嵇 红,赵子平,吴 莹,刘文东.2020年江苏省新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎时空分析[J].南京医科大学学报,2021,(8):1232~1238
2020年江苏省新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎时空分析
Spatio⁃temporal clustering analysis of COVID⁃19 in Jiangsu,2020
投稿时间:2021-03-13  
DOI:doi:10.7655/NYDXBNS20210820
中文关键词: 新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎  最邻近指数  时空扫描  江苏
英文关键词: COVID⁃19  nearest neighbor indicator  space⁃time scanning  Jiangsu
基金项目:江苏省卫生健康委科研项目(Z2019006);江苏省青年医学重点人才培养项目(QNRC2016542)
作者单位
时影影 江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所江苏 南京 210009 
沈文琪 江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所江苏 南京 210009 
嵇 红 江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所江苏 南京 210009 
赵子平 南京医科大学公共卫生学院江苏 南京 211166 
吴 莹 江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所江苏 南京 210009 
刘文东 江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所江苏 南京 210009 
摘要点击次数: 108
全文下载次数: 16
中文摘要:
      目的:分析江苏省新型冠状病毒感染的肺炎疫情时空聚集性,为进一步做好疫情防控提供依据。方法:绘制发病流行曲线、点标记图描述时空演变。采用最邻近指数(nearest neighbor indicator,NNI)估计本土病例全局聚集性;以县(区)为单位,采用Kulldorff扫描统计量探测时空聚集区。使用Excel 2010、SaTScan 9.6.1、ArcGIS 10.2进行分析。结果:江苏省2020年1—12月共报告684例确诊病例,其中本土631例,境外输入53例。本土病例波及全省79.44%的县(区),存在空间聚集性(NNI=0.27,P < 0.01)。时空扫描显示一级聚集区位于苏北4个设区市交界处,包括21个县区,时间为1月26日—2月1日(LLR =74.92,RR=5.06,P < 0.01);3个二级聚集区涉及27个县区,其中二级聚集区2时间为2月上旬。输入病例涉及11个设区市28个县(区),其中南京23例、连云港9例。结论:江苏省疫情特征表现为“南北聚集,中部分散”。苏南长三角核心城市和苏北交通枢纽地区应不断优化防控策略,以早期发现并控制潜在的暴发。
英文摘要:
      Objective:This study aims to clarify the evolution and space?time clusters of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID?19)epidemic of Jiangsu,providing evidences for rapid detecting and responding to potential outbreaks. Methods:Epidemic curves and dot maps based on coordinates were applied to display the temporal the spatial evolution process. The nearest neighbor indicator(NNI) was used to estimate the global spatial aggregation of indigenous cases,and Kulldorff space?time scan statistic was performed to detect the space?time clusters at the county level. These analysis were performed by Excel 2010,SatScan 9.6.1 and ArcGIS 10.2. Results:A total of 684 confirmed cases were reported during 2020 in Jiangsu. There were 631 indigenous cases,involving 79.44% counties. The NNI of the indigenous cases was 0.27(P < 0.01),indicating global spatial aggregation. The most likely cluster covered four cities in north Jiangsu,including 21 counties,which emerged between January 26 and February 1(LLR=74.92,RR=5.06,P < 0.01). Three secondary clusters were detected in south Jiangsu,including 27 counties. In particular,secondary cluster?2 happened in early February. 53 Imported cases involved 28 counties in 11 cities,23 of which were admitted in Nanjing and 9 in Lianyungang. Conclusion:COVID?19 cases concentrated in the south and north Jiangsu,but scattered in middle area. More efforts should be put into precise containments to contain potential local multipoint outbreaks in early stage,especially in the Yangtze River Delta core cities in south area and transport hubs in north area.
查看全文   查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器