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第44卷第1期 马一鸣，丁 勇. 我国2012―2021年4种肝炎流行趋势的时间序列分析和预测［J］.
2024年1月 南京医科大学学报（自然科学版），2024，44（01）：072-079 · 75 ·

A 200 B 15 000
Seasonal factors of hepatitis A -100 0 Seasonal factors of hepatitis B -5 000 0
10 000
100
5 000

-200
-15 000
-300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -10 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month Month
C 4 000 D 1 000
Seasonal factors of hepatitis C -2 000 0 Seasonal factors of hepatitis E -200 0
800
2 000
600
400
200

-4 000
-6 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month Month
A：seasonal factors of hepatitis A. B：seasonal factors of hepatitis B. C：seasonal factors of hepatitis C. D：seasonal factors of hepatitis E.
图2 4种肝炎1―12月的季节因子
Figure 2 Seasonal factors of four hepatitis types from January to December

A 2 500 B 120 000
Number of cases of hepatitis A 2 000 Number of cases of hepatitis B 110 000

100 000
1 500
90 000
1 000
JAN 2012 JUN 2012 NOV 2012 APR 2013 SEP 2013 FEB 2014 JUL 2014 DEC 2014 MAY 2015 OCT 2015 MAR 2016 AUG 2016 JAN 2017 JUN 2017 NOV 2017 APR 2018 SEP 2019 FEB 2019 JUL 2019 DEC 2019 MAY 2020 OCT 2020 MAR 2021 AUG 2021 JAN 2022 JUN 2022 70 000 JAN 2012 JUN 2012 NOV 2012 APR 2013 SEP 2013 FEB 2014 JUL 2014 DEC 2014 MAY 2015 OCT 2015 MAR 2016 AUG 2016 JAN 2017 JUN 2017 NOV 2017 APR 2018 SEP 2019 FEB 2019 JUL 2019 DEC 2019 MAY 2020 OCT 2020 MAR 2021 AUG 2021 JAN 2022

Time Time
C 2 200 D 3 000
Number of cases of hepatitis C 2 000 Number of cases of hepatitis E 2 500

2 000
1 800
1 500
1 600

JAN 2012 JUN 2012 NOV 2012 APR 2013 SEP 2013 FEB 2014 JUL 2014 DEC 2014 MAY 2015 OCT 2015 MAR 2016 AUG 2016 JAN 2017 JUN 2017 NOV 2017 APR 2018 SEP 2019 FEB 2019 JUL 2019 DEC 2019 MAY 2020 OCT 2020 MAR 2021 AUG 2021 JAN 2022 JUN 2022 1 000 JAN 2012 JUN 2012 NOV 2012 APR 2013 SEP 2013 FEB 2014 JUL 2014 DEC 2014 MAY 2015 OCT 2015 MAR 2016 AUG 2016 JAN 2017 JUN 2017 NOV 2017 APR 2018 SEP 2019 FEB 2019 JUL 2019 DEC 2019 MAY 2020 OCT 2020 MAR 2021 AUG 2021 JAN 2022

Time Time
A：long term trend of the number of cases of hepatitis A. B：long term trend of the number of cases of hepatitis B. C：long term trend of the number
of cases of hepatitis C. D：long term trend of the number of cases of hepatitis E.
图3 4种肝炎发病例数的长期趋势
Figure 3 Long term trend of the number of cases of four types of hepatitis

较大的发病例数，总体保持下降趋势；乙型肝炎总 2013—2016 年保持相对平稳，2017 年上升，2020 年
体 趋 势 较 复 杂 ，2012 年 发 病 例 数 有 较 大 下 降 ， 有较大的下降，2021 年又开始上升，近年来有上升