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第46卷第10期           史灵恩,孙 琦,尤心仪,等. 2010—2024年江苏省乙型病毒性肝炎流行趋势与特征[J].
                 2026年10月                  南京医科大学学报(自然科学版),2026,46(10):1499-1510,1560                  ·1503 ·


                    000)  40  Nanjing               000)  40  Wuxi                  000)  40  Changzhou
                                                                                     30
                     30
                                                     30
                    ASIR (1/100  20                 (1/100  ASIR  20                (1/100  ASIR  20
                                                     10
                     10
                                                                                     10
                      0                               0                              0
                         2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024
                                  Year              ASIR          Year              ASIR          Year
                    ASIR
                 South of Jiangsu  000)  APC=-17.39,95%CI:-35.93-6.52,P > 0.05  APC=-16.29,95%CI:-27.87--2.86,P=0.026  APC=-37.25,95%CI:-62.58-5.22,P=0.072
                                                    APC=18.88,95%CI:2.27-38.19,P=0.030
                                                                                    APC=3.09,95%CI:-0.82-7.15,P=0.110
                    APC=10.68,95%CI:4.67-17.04,P=0.004
                                                    APC=-8.20,95%CI:-11.79--4.45,P=0.001
                    APC=60.05,95%CI:23.01-108.25,P=0.004
                                                     40
                                                    000)
                     40
                                                        Zhenjiang
                        Suzhou
                    ASIR (1/100  30                 (1/100  ASIR  30
                                                     20
                     20
                     10
                                                     10
                      0                               0
                         2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024
                                  Year                            Year
                      ASIR                           ASIR
                      APC=3.44,95%CI:1.06-5.87,P=0.008  APC=4.28,95%CI:-0.78-9.607,P=0.092
                     000)  40  Nantong               000)  (1/100  40  Yangzhou      000)  (1/100  50  Taizhou
                                                                                     40
                                                      30
                      30
                                                                                     30
                                                      20
                      20
                 Central Jiangsu  ASIR (1/100  10 0  ASIR  10 0                      ASIR  20 0
                                                                                     10
                                 2015
                              2013
                                2014
                                                                    2016
                                                                     2017
                                     2017
                                                                                                   2016
                                   2016
                           2011
                         2010
                             2012
                                   Year 2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  Year 2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  Year 2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024
                    ASIR                             ASIR                             ASIR
                    APC=-26.42,95%CI:-61.52-40.70,P=0.300  APC=-19.18,95%CI:-35.03-0.54,P=0.055  APC=-24.90,95%CI:-33.17--15.62,
                    APC=61.35,95%CI:-18.89-220.96,P=0.144  APC=3.70,95%CI:-1.48-9.16,P=0.138  P < 0.001
                    APC=-2.84,95%CI:-6.56-1.02,P=0.124  APC=24.55,95%CI:-13.78-79.92,P=0.201  APC=16.35,95%CI:7.29-26.17,P=0.002
                     000)  80  Xuzhou                000)  40  Lianyungang           000)  40  Huai’an
                                                      30
                      60
                                                                                     30
                     ASIR (1/100  40                 (1/100  ASIR  20                (1/100  ASIR  20
                                                                                     10
                                                      10
                      20
                       0                               0                              0
                          2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024
                                   Year                            Year                           Year
                     ASIR                            ASIR                             ASIR
                 North of Jiangsu  000)  APC=41.49,95%CI:17.27-70.71,P=0.002  000)  APC=13.95,95%CI:8.02--20.20,P < 0.001
                                                                                      APC=0.99,95%CI:-0.13-2.11,P=0.079
                                                     APC=-7.23,95%CI:-16.19-2.69,P=0.131
                     APC=-11.93,95%CI:31.02-12.45,P=0.274
                                                      120
                     40
                                                          Suqian
                         Yancheng
                                                      100
                     30
                     ASIR (1/100  20                 (1/100  ASIR  80
                                                       60
                                                       40
                     10
                      0                                20 0
                         2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021  2022  2023  2024
                                   Year                             Year
                     ASIR                            ASIR
                     APC=8.61,95%CI:-1.09-19.26,P=0.075  APC=22.70,95%CI:12.16-34.23,P=0.001
                     APC=-5.12,95%CI:-17.46-9.06,P=0.402  APC=-26.36,95%CI:-48.29-4.87,P=0.080
                     APC=8.29,95%CI:3.74-13.03,P=0.003  APC=-3.22,95%CI:-10.85-5.06,P=0.377
                                          图3   江苏省13个设区市2010—2024年HBV⁃ASIR变化
                               Figure 3  Trends of reported HBV⁃ASIR in different cities in Jiangsu from 2010 to 2024
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