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表8 戊肝时间序列各分量的协方差和贡献率
Table 8 Covariance and contribution rate of each component in the hepatitis E time series

2012-2019 2012-2020 2012-2021
Decomposition Variance Variance Variance
Covariance Covariance Covariance
contribution rate（%） contribution rate（%） contribution rate（%）
Time series 216 394.94 - 253 676.45 - 241 598.16 -
Long⁃term trend 26 489.90 12.24 99 572.74 39.25 93 030.72 38.51
Seasonal factor 166 431.85 76.91 126 705.07 49.95 122 543.39 50.72
Error 23 473.20 10.85 27 398.63 10.80 26 024.05 10.77
2012-2022 2012-2023
Decomposition Variance Variance
Covariance Covariance
contribution rate（%） contribution rate（%）
Time series 241 955.79 - 245 797.33 -
Long⁃term trend 94 672.37 39.13 101 597.22 41.99
Seasonal factor 120 633.09 49.86 116 140.31 48.00
Error 26 650.34 11.01 28 059.80 11.60

A B
4 000 3 000
3 500 2 500

Time series 3 000 Long⁃term trend 2 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 500
1 000 1 000
2012 JAN 2012 MAY 2012 SEP 2013 JAN 2013 MAY 2013 SEP 2014 JAN 2014 MAY 2014 SEP 2015 JAN 2015 MAY 2015 SEP 2016 JAN 2016 MAY 2016 SEP 2017 JAN 2017 MAY 2017 SEP 2018 JAN 2018 MAY 2018 SEP 2019 JAN 2019 MAY 2019 SEP 2020 JAN 2020 MAY 2020 SEP 2021 JAN 2021 MAY 2021 SEP 2022 JAN 2022 MAY 2022 SEP 2023 JAN 2023 MAY 2023 SEP 2012 JAN 2012 MAY 2012 SEP 2013 JAN 2013 MAY 2013 SEP 2014 JAN 2014 MAY 2014 SEP 2015 JAN 2015 MAY

Time Time
C D
1 000 1 000
800
500 600
Seasonal factor 0 Seasonal factor 400

200

-500 0
-200
-400
-1 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month Month
A：Time series chart between 2012 and 2023. B：Long⁃term trend chart between 2012 and 2023. C：Seasonal factor chart between 2012 and 2019.
D：Seasonal factor chart between 2012 and 2023.
图4 戊肝月发病数的系列图
Figure 4 Series chart of monthly incidence of hepatitis E

前后肝炎发病趋势的变化规律，为疫情后的肝炎防
3 讨 论
控工作提供参考依据和决策思路 。
［12］
同时对甲、乙、丙、戊型肝炎进行分析，可以全 本研究发现，肝炎月发病数时间序列各分量方
面揭示各种肝炎发病趋势的共同特征和比较疫情 差贡献率的大小可以反映时间序列图的形态。误