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第44卷第10期
               ·1458 ·                           南 京    医 科 大 学 学         报                        2024年10月



                             12 000

                             10 000
                            cases  8 000
                            Number of  6 000


                              4 000
                              2 000

                                 0
                                      2004  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2019  2020  2021  2022
                                      JAN  NOV  SEP  JULL  MAY  MAR  JAN  NOV  SEP  JUL  MAY  MAR  JAN  NOV  SEP  JUL  MAY  MAR  JAN  NOV  SEP  JUL  MAY

                                                                Time
                                                图1 我国甲肝发病人数时间序列图
                                        Figure 1 Time series of incidence of hepatitis A in China



                                    400
                                    200 0

                                  Seasonal factors  -200


                                   -400
                                   -600
                                   -800

                                  -1 000
                                            1   2   3   4  5   6   7   8   9   10  11  12
                                                                Month
                                                   图2 甲肝发病数的季节因子
                                          Figure 2 Seasonal factors of incidence of hepatitis A


                              0.6
                              0.4
                           Data after preprocessing  -0.2 0
                              0.2



                             -0.4
                             -0.6
                             -0.8
                             -1.0
                             -1.2
                                      2005  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2006  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2020  2021  2022
                                      FEB  DEC  OCT  AUG  JUN  APR  FEB  DEC  OCT  AUG  JUN  APR  FEB  DEC  OCT  AUG  JUN  APR  FEB  DEC  OCT  AUG

                                                               Time
                                                     图3 平稳的时间序列图
                                                   Figure 3 Stationary time series
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