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第44卷第9期
               ·1224 ·                           南 京    医 科 大 学 学         报                        2024年9月


              A                                                          B
                            0       20      40      60      80      100        1.0
                Points
                Risk score                                                     0.8
                            6           7           8          9
                Age                                                            0.6
                            20     40     60      80     100                Observed fraction  survival probability
                                    T2  T4                                     0.4            1⁃year
                T                                                                             2⁃year
                           T1       T3           M1                            0.2
                M                                                                             3⁃year
                            M0  N0     N3
                N                                                               0             ldeal line
                           N1   N2
                Sex             Male                                              .0  0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
                        Female 1   3                                          Nomogram predicted survival probability
                Stage
                            4    2                                       C
                Total points                                                              5 year
                            0     40     80     120    160   200    240                   Risk score  T   N
                Linear predictor                                                          Age      M      Sex
                                -3.5  -2.5 -1.5  -0.5  0.5  1.5  2.5  3.5
                                                                                          Pathological stage
                1⁃year survival probability            0.9  0.8  0.7  0.6  0.5  0.4  0.2  Pathological stage+T+M+N+Sex
                3⁃year survival probability                                               +Age+Risk score
                                                  0.8  0.6 0.4 0.2          Net benefit   All positive
                5⁃year survival probability                                  0.1          All negative
                                                0.8  0.6 0.4 0.2
                                                                              0
                                                                               00  0.25  0.50  0.75  1.00
                                                                                   Threshold probability
              D           5 year      E          5 year        F          5 year       G          5 year
                          Model                  Model                    Model           0.3     New model
                 0.3     (PMID:30755640)  0.3    (PMID:37370046)  0.3    (PMID:37384293)          All positive
                                                                                                  All negative
                          All positive    0.2    All positive     0.2     All positive    0.2    C⁃index(95%CI):
                          All negative
                                                                          All negative
                                                 All negative
                Net benefit  0.1  C⁃index(95%CI):  Net benefit  0.1  C⁃index(95%CI):  Net benefit  0.1  C⁃index(95%CI):  Net benefit  0.1  0.765(0.747-0.783)
                 0.2
                                                 0.641(0.618-0.663)
                         0.703(0.683-0.724)
                                                                         0.640(0.617-0.662)
                  0                        0                       0                       0
                   .0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0   .0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0  .0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0   .0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
                    Threshold probability    Threshold probability   Threshold probability   Threshold probability
                 A:Nomogram for predicting the 1,3,5⁃year OS of CRC patients. B:Calibration curve for the prediction of 1,3,5⁃year OS. C:DCA for evaluating
              the clinical efficacy of different models. D-G:Comparison of predictive abilities of different models using the C⁃index from the DCA curve.
                                               图5 预后列线图绘制与预后效果评估
                                      Figure 5 Mapping and evaluation of the prognostic nomogram

              A      Response  B      Response  C      Response  D     NU.7441 ***        E
                     No_response      No_response      No_response  NVP.BEZ235 ***            Metfomin ***
                                                                        DMOG ***                       ***
                    CRC_TCGA         GSE39582         GSE17536                                      ***  P < 0.001
                                                                     Bryostatin.1 ***        BIBW2992
                       ***              ***                           AZD6482 ***
                 100              100              100                AMG.706 ***             Sorafenib ***  Coefficient
                                                                                                        1.0
                (%)  75          (%)  75          (%)  75            CCT007093 ***          GW.441756  ***  0.5
                                                                        BX.795 ***
                                                                                                        0
                                                                     Midostaurin ***
                Percentage  50   Percentage  50   Percentage  50      GDC0941 ***  *** P < 0.001  PF.4708671 ***  -0.5
                                                                       Imatinib ***
                                                                                                        -1.0
                                                                       Dasatinib ***
                                                                                  Coefficient
                                   25
                                                    25
                 25
                                                                      AZD.0530 ***
                                                                    JNJ.26854165 ***  1.0
                  0                0                 0                             0.5
                                                                  WO2009093972 ***  0
                                    High risk score
                   High risk score
               Low risk score   Low risk score    Low risk score      Bexarotene ***  -0.5
                                                      High risk score
                                                                       PLX4720 ***
                                                                                   -1.0
                                                                     AG.014699 ***
                                                                      X17.AAG ***
                                                                      AP.24534 ***
                                                                      Pazopanib ***
                                                                    GSK269962A ***
                                                                        FTI.277 ***
                                                                       LFM.A13 ***
                 A-C:Prediction of the immune efficacy in CRC_TCGA(A),GSE39582(B),and GSE17536(C)cohorts based on PSCRC. D,E:Correlation be⁃
              tween IC50 of chemotherapy drugs and PSCRC. Figure 6D showed drugs for which the IC 50 is inversely proportional to the PSCRC risk score,while figure
              6E showed drugs whose IC 50 is proportional to the PSCRC risk score.  *** P < 0.001.
                                                    图6   PSCRC的疗效预测
                                          Figure 6  Prediction of the efficacy based on PSCRC
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